Can someone check in to see if Devin Williams is alright? I truly fear for that man’s safety amongst Yankees fans.
Williams once again failed to deliver for New York on Wednesday night, entering a 4-4 game in the bottom of the eighth inning and promptly surrendering the lead in what eventually turned into an 8-7 loss to the Astros. The defeat was a big one — particularly with the Blue Jays winning — as the Yankees now find themselves 3.5 games back in the AL East.
Can New York bounce back on Thursday and take the series? Let’s preview this pivotal American League matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Astros prediction, preview
With the bullpen still shaky, the Yankees will need to rely on Carlos Rodon to have a good start at Daikin Park. Fortunately, there’s a case to be made that Rodon has been New York’s most consistent pitcher in 2025. While he hasn’t quite reached Max Fried’s dizzying highs, Rodon enters tonight’s tilt in possession of a 3.18 ERA and a 3.29 xERA across 28 outings and 164.1 innings. The southpaw has also been amazing in specifically his past four starts, registering a 2.19 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. It’s a span where Rodon’s 1.64 K/BB ratio leaves a lot to be desired, yet the veteran lefty hasn’t allowed a single opponent home run, either. I assume that’s a trade that Aaron Boone will be willing to keep making.
Houston will present an interesting matchup for Rodon. One of the quirks of being an AL West team in 2025 is that not many teams within the division have left-handed starters. As such, the Astros, Angels and Athletics all rank in the bottom three for plate appearances within the split. Houston might not see many southpaws, yet it hits them well on the rare occasion it does. The Astros rank fourth in both wOBA (.328) and wRC+ (110) against LHPs, with Cam Smith and Jeremy Pena tending to do the most damage. If nothing else, Rodon’s presence will give the red-hot Yordan Alvarez a left-on-left challenge, after the former All-Star managed four hits in Wednesday’s victory. For their careers, Alvarez is just 3-for-16 (.188) off Rodon.
On the other side of the pitching probables we find Cristian Javier. The RHP is coming off without a doubt his best performance of 2025, tossing six hitless innings versus Los Angeles last Friday. Due to injury, that was just the 11th start that Javier has made since the beginning of 2024. I’m dubious that Javier can find the same level of success against the Yankees. Not only is New York a massive step-up in competition, but unlike the Angels, the Yankees can stuff their lineup full of quality LHBs. Javier has dominated right-handed hitters throughout his career, holding RHBs to a paltry .158 batting average. When he gives up runs, it’s usually due to a lefty.
Yankees vs. Astros pick, best bet
Best Bet: Trent Grisham 2+ Total Bases (+130)
Grisham has posted a .901 OPS and a 151 wRC+ against RHPs so far in 2025.
Strong Lean: Astros ML (+119)
The Astros are 7-2 as a home dog this season, while the Yankees have struggled with playoff-bound opponents.
