GPPs are not won by using a lineup with all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event in your roster construction can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust.
Hence, the goal of this article won’t be to just highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names. We won’t avoid all the chalky names, because good players are still good plays most of the time. However, highlighting contrarian roster constructions and ways to make your lineup unique while maximizing upside will be the goal.
Remember, in most cases, the person who finishes in 10,000th place and the person who finishes in 1,269th place receive the same amount of money in many of these larger field contests, so there is no reason to simply follow the crowd to feel comfortable.
Let’s dive into Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Top DFS Contrarian Stack
Game Stack: Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans
Bo Nix ($6,300) – Courtland Sutton ($6,000) – Marvin Mims Jr. ($4,500) – Calvin Ridley ($5,000)
Denver has the third-highest implied team total on the Week 1 Sunday slate and has a lot of question marks in its run game. The Broncos are also expected to rotate three-to-four backs throughout the game. That leaves potential for a big fantasy day from Bo Nix, who is projected to have lower ownership than many other top QBs, and may be asked to throw the ball a little more around the goal line in his second season.
At home last season, Nix was also far more efficient. In his eight games played in Denver, he had a 102 passer rating and managed a 67.9% completion percentage, which was 3% higher than his road splits. He also averaged 2.5 touchdowns per game. When you add in that he is attached to an aggressive head coach in Sean Payton, the potential for a Denver “onslaught” lineup to post a big week seems promising.
Again, while the Denver running backs are intriguing, the rotation may mean that none of them strike for big fantasy days. So, if we’re chasing a big day from this offense, I’d rather chase the low ownership of both Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims Jr. in this spot, Denver’s two starting receivers who should see the majority of Nix’s targets.
Despite good young talent behind him, Sutton is the clear-cut No. 1 receiver and will likely draw less ownership due to a matchup with shadow cornerback, L’Jarius Sneed. Sneed may not be an ideal matchup, but it’s good to remember the veteran missed most of last season, had two offseason surgeries, and is still not fully practicing. It’s a matchup that Sutton can likely exploit.
Mims Jr., who practiced fully this week, also projects to have low ownership, thanks in part to his groin injury that landed him on the injury report. He played exclusively with the first team in the preseason and should draw secondary coverage in this game, giving him and Nix lots of opportunity at some big plays. Mims Jr. averaged 62 yards and had 6 touchdowns over his last seven games last season, and looks ready to be a big part of this offense in 2025.
Any sort of “run-it-up” scenario by Denver’s offense would also leave the potential for a lot of garbage time throws by Tennessee late in the game. While the matchup for Calvin Ridley with Patrick Surtain II isn’t ideal, it’s likely a good idea to include him in any Nix/Sutton/Mims Jr. stack. His price already reflects the poor matchup, and he’s going to be the primary target for Cam Ward as long as he’s healthy.
Quarterback
Michael Penix Jr. ($5,600)
The matchup in Week 1 looks promising for Penix Jr. to get off to a big start. Tampa Bay is dealing with some injuries on its defensive depth chart and has not been good at stopping the pass in each of the last two seasons under head coach Todd Bowles. The Buccaneers allowed the second-most fantasy points and passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks last season. They’ve also struggled with limiting both Drake London ($6,500) and Kyle Pitts ($4,300) in the past, who both project as easy correlation targets for Penix Jr. in this game.
From a valuation standpoint, there is also the chance this cheap Week 1 salary on Penix Jr. ends up being his floor. The second-year QB didn’t get the luxury of working with the first team offense last preseason and had to come in cold to finish off the last three games for Atlanta in 2024. His final game of the season showcased what kind of upside he has, however, as he managed 312 yards and 2 touchdowns against a weak Panthers’ defense. At just $5,600 this week, he’s a solid value for those looking to stack multiple big-name wide receivers or running backs this week.
Running Back
Higher End: TreVeyon Henderson ($5,500)
DraftKings uses full PPR scoring (one point per reception), which makes Henderson a great target at his current price point. The Patriots lack an explosive WR1 and seem likely to use Henderson in the passing game this season. The rookie had an explosive preseason, scoring multiple touchdowns and returning a kickoff return on his first touch in the league. However, with Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400) still involved and some mystery as to how the Patriots will deploy the running backs, Henderson still doesn’t figure to be that popular of a play for Week 1.
Long story short, I’d much rather be early than late in trying to capture the upside on a player like Henderson. The Patriots aren’t likely to take it slow with such a talented player, and Vegas was solid at limiting big plays downfield last year to opposing wideouts (10th-fewest fantasy points allowed in 2024). At just $5,500, Henderson’s floor may be a bit of an unknown, but he likely provides similar upside to several players in the $6,000+ range, making him a great tournament play for NFL Sunday.
Lower End: Tank Bigsby ($4,600)
If you need a cheap play at running back or flex, Bigsby has the sort of upside you should be targeting. The Jaguars have made it known that both him and Travis Etienne Jr. ($5,400) will be involved by listing them both as starters on their Week 1 depth chart, but Bigsby comes with a far cheaper price tag and better big-play ability.
The third-year back averaged 4.6 yards per carry last season and scored 7 rushing touchdowns. For comparison, Etienne Jr. averaged 3.7 yards per carry and found the endzone via the ground twice. Bigsby also has a better chance of ripping off a big play, as he forced 46 missed tackles and recorded two runs of 50+ yards in 2024. It’s hard to say how this will play out, but given how these backs profile, it’s quite possible that Bigsby will earn more early-down work, which could make him a hyper-valuable play this week, given how weak Carolina’s defense is.
Wide Receiver
Higher End: Jameson Williams ($5,500)
Williams looks set to start fast again this season. New offensive coordinator John Morton has already expressed a desire to take more “shots” with Williams, who has been praised for his renewed focus in training camp. In Week 1, he’ll face a Packers defense that cut ties with Jaire Alexander over the offseason and features a younger and unproven set of corners. It’s also a secondary that Williams had success against late last season, posting five catches and 80 yards on eight targets.
The Packers-Lions game has a close point spread and a total of O/U 47.0 points, making it a potential shootout game and certainly one that could produce lots of big fantasy performances. At just $5,500, Williams looks like a great way to get some contrarian “island” exposure to this game, and has the potential to return 4-5x value if this Detroit offense picks up where it left off under Ben Johnson last season.
Lower End: Rashid Shaheed ($4,600)
The Saints’ passing game is likely going to be a weekly rollercoaster this year. On the one hand, they’ll likely be down in a lot of games, leading to plenty of high-volume passing situations where they’re playing from behind against prevent defenses. On the other hand, the weak quarterback play could also lead to plenty of bust weeks where they barely get off the ground.
Either way, the potential for a player like Rashid Shaheed to get off some monster games will be there. When healthy, Shaheed has proven to be capable of producing fantasy weeks capable of returning 4-5x in value at his current prices. Last season, he averaged 84.5 yards and scored twice in his first two games of the season. He has also posted 60+ yards in the first two games of the season, in back-to-back seasons.
As long as his salary remains under $5,000 (and he’s healthy), I don’t see much reason not to be overweight on him in larger fields where his upside surpasses most of the names in his range.
Tight End
Ja’Tavion Sanders ($2,900)
The Panthers’ offense lost two wideouts over the last two weeks of training camp. First, they traded Adam Thielen to Minnesota, then Jalen Coker was placed on injured reserve with a quad injury. This should results in lots of opportunities for a player like Sanders, who had three games with 4+ catches and 40+ yards last year (in a limited playing time), to carve out a significant role.
Sanders impressed this offseason, and with Tommy Tremble having missed most of camp, he seems likely to see significant snaps and run a heavy dose of routes right out of the gate. At just $2,900, he’ll also be taking on a Jaguars defense that allowed 54 yards per game and eight total touchdowns to opposing tight ends last season. You may not need to dive down this deep at tight end, but if you do, Sanders is likely your best shot at hitting on a 5x sort of return from a player in this $3,000 and under range.
Defense/Special Teams
Miami Dolphins ($2,700)
The Dolphins revamped their defense over the offseason, and it could pay off big in Week 1 with Daniel Jones on the other side. With Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips healthy, they’ll join Zach Sieler up front, who has now landed 10 sacks in each of his last two seasons. If the pressure and sacks go up, the turnovers should as well. Miami wasn’t great in the turnover department last season, but with names like Minkah Fitzpatrick and Rasul Douglas now in the mix, there is room for positive regression.
The big prize/upside, though, for Week 1 undoubtedly comes from facing Jones. If Miami can force Jones into more dropbacks, the likelihood that they’ll pay off with a big play goes up substantially. Jones has 13 interceptions over his last 16 starts and has been sacked 3.68 times per game over the last two seasons. It’s a recipe for a big week from a D/ST that is only going under $3,000, due to some of the poor metrics it posted last season. With the revamped depth chart and a great matchup, they look like a great value play to deploy in Week 1.
