Week 1 of college football got underway with a wild five-day slate of games spanning over Labor Day Weekend. My plays from Week 0 and Week 1 have me sitting at 7-6 for -1.34-units on the season. Clemson and Oregon State were the big ones that let me down on Saturday night. I’ll have more to add here throughout the week, and our team at DK Network will have breakdowns on nearly every game on the board. But for the time being, here’s what I’m looking to play in Week 2.
Baylor Team Total OVER 30.5 (-125) 1-unit: Baylor finished with 24 points in its opener against Auburn, but left plenty of points on the table. There were failed opportunities, and the Tigers did a tremendous job of running the ball and burning clock. Sawyer Robertson passed for over 400 yards, which is very difficult to do against a stout SEC defense. I expect the Bears to move the ball even more efficiently against this SMU defense that showed flaws in Week 1, and capitalize on more scoring chances. Baylor is a very sharp side in the game in the betting splits, and I believe the Bears have a good chance to win this game. I’m just more confident in them putting up points.
Iowa +3.5 (-110) 1.5-units: Iowa State is 2-0 on the young season, and the home team is catching all the hype in this one. That said, the Cyclones’ Week 0 victory is looking less and less impressive over a Kansas State team that’s struggling. Iowa State returned home and collected a blowout win over South Dakota, but I still don’t think we know much about this team. Iowa had to show nothing in a Week 1 victory over Albany, and I expect the Hawkeyes to unleash a lot of new looks in this rivalry game. This could be a hangover spot for the Cyclones, who have already had to travel internationally, while Iowa has been sitting back preparing for revenge. Iowa was up big at home in this game last year, but ISU hit some big second half plays to steal the win. I think Iowa gets them back this time around on the road, where its won six in a row in this matchup. I’ll gladly take the points.
Ole Miss/Kentucky UNDER 50.5 (-110) 1-unit: We get an SEC opener for these teams in Lexington, with Kentucky coming off a road upset over Ole Miss last season. That one finished with a 20-17 final, and while the Rebs will be looking for revenge this time around, I don’t think it’ll be in high-flying fashion. Kentucky topped Toledo 24-16 last week, but that game had only 12 points scored entering the fourth quarter before we got some fireworks. Ole Miss piled up 63 points at home against Georgia State last week, but we know Kentucky won’t allow anything close to that pace. Mark Stoops will take the approach he usually does for a game like this — run the ball and play defense. Six of Kentucky’s eight SEC games stayed under 50.5 points last season, with big offensive showings from Florida and Texas the only games to go over. Most of the others stayed well under a total like this, including just 37 points in this exact matchup last season in Ole Miss’ SEC opener. Kentucky had its SEC opener two games earlier in the season, and those two games finished with 37 points against South Carolina and just 25 against Georgia in a game the Wildcats almost won. Look for another grinder here to start SEC play.
Oregon State ML (-145) 1-unit: I trusted the Beavers at home last week and they fell flat. My big miss on that handicap was going against Cal’s true freshman quarterback, who looked every bit the part of an elite NFL prospect. Oregon State came out slow, which was its own fault, but was able to find momentum in the second half. This is a big game for the Beavers to get back on track at home in Corvallis, and Fresno State gives them a good chance to do so. Fresno has not looked all that great to begin the season, and I expect them to struggle on the road against a hungry team looking to bounce-back from an embarrassing loss. The Beavers have all the pieces in place, but need to eliminate mistakes and play better here, which I believe they will.
North Carolina -12.5 (-115) 1-unit: Yup, I’m doing it. After opening the game with a near perfect drive, Bill Belichick’s team couldn’t have been more pathetic the rest of the game. The Tar Heels got destroyed by a better TCU team, and will now look to get themselves in order for a road game on a short week. Everyone is counting UNC out, to the point that this spread is down to 12.5 points, after sitting at 21.5 before the week. I may not back Belichick again this season, but I have to take this buy-low spot with everything to prove in Week 2. It’s worth noting that Charlotte looked absolutely dreadful in its opener as well — the 49ers were heavily steamed as a short home underdog to App State and went on to lose 34-11. It’s now or never to put up a convincing win for UNC.
Oklahoma Half Time/ Full Time (+100) 1-unit: This one is the game of the week on Saturday night in Norman. We have the lower-ranked team a growing home favorite, as Oklahoma was bet from -1.5 to -3 on the preseason line. The spread touched as high as OU -6 this week, and has settled at -4.5. I’d lay it with the Sooners if you want to just play the spread, but I’m going a different direction. I’m fortunate enough to have some preseason numbers in pocket with OU a short favorite, but I like them to come out and control this game early and go on to win. Michigan wasn’t all that impressive in Week 1, defeating New Mexico at home by a score of just 34-17. Bryce Underwood played fine in the game, but now you have a true freshman quarterback going into a hostile road environment for a night game against an elite defense. One of the Wolverines better pass rushers also got a targeting penalty last week, so will be forced to sit the first half of this game. John Mateer threw for nearly 400 yards in his Oklahoma debut, tossing in three touchdowns and running in another one. This offense is back on track and I expect the Sooners to pull away at home against a Michigan team I’m still not high on. I’ll probably add to this game in some fashion as kickoff nears.
Michigan State -4.5 (-110) 1.5-units: Boston College defeated Michigan State in Chestnut Hill last season in the Saturday night Red Bandana Game — a big game on campus for BC. Sparty nearly won the game, and while they covered, BC took it on a big play late. Now it’s time for some revenge at home. Jonathan Smith has the coaching advantage in this one in my book, and may also have a key edge within the game. Dylan Lonergan injured his shoulder against Fordham, and is not going to be 100% playing in this one. With quarterback issues for the Eagles, I like Sparty to play tough defense in a Saturday night home game and have some good schemes on offense to win with margin.
UCLA ML (-135) 1-unit: UCLA looked awful in the home opener against Utah, getting dominated from start to finish. I’m not high on UCLA at all this season, but this is a buy-low spot on the Bruins against a UNLV team that has not played well so far this season. The Rebels nearly lost the Week 0 opener at home to Idaho State, and then got a sloppy win in Week 1 against Sam Houston State. They’ve played nobody, and looked poor despite the record sitting at 2-0. Expect UCLA to be hungry off a loss and ready to go on Saturday in Vegas. UNLV doesn’t have much of a home crowd, and we easily could see just as many UCLA fans in the building for this one. Look for the Bruins to get the offense going against a very soft UNLV defense.
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