To say that the Blue Jays’ bullpen has been underwhelming in the first two games of this series would be a massive understatement. After blowing a two-run lead in the ninth inning on Monday, Toronto almost blew an 8-1 lead on Tuesday, but did eventually hang on to secure a 12-9 victory over the Reds at Great American Ball Park.
With the Red Sox and the Yankees also both winning last night, the Jays maintained their 2.5-game lead on both rivals in the race for the AL East Crown. Meanwhile, Cincinnati also has something to play for, as the club still sits five games back of the Mets for the final Wild Card spot in the NL.
Let’s preview this pivotal interleague matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Reds prediction, preview
It’s pretty simple. Games like today are why the Blue Jays traded for Shane Bieber. Toronto desperately needs a series victory before heading into a pivotal three-game set in the Bronx this weekend. The Jays also need a starter to work deep. Even with the expanded rosters, Toronto’s bullpen is in horrible shape after needing to cover seven innings on Tuesday. Jeff Hoffman and Seranthony Dominguez have each pitched in three of the team’s past four contests, while Tommy Nance and Brendon Little have toed the rubber two of the last three. Here’s the good news: Bieber’s looked amazing in a Jays’ uniform so far. Across 11.1 innings, the veteran RHP has maintained a 2.38 ERA with a 3.01 xERA, striking out 15 and not walking a single opponent. Bieber threw 92 pitches his last time out against the Brewers. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t flirt with 100 tonight.
The Reds’ relievers are tired entering Wednesday, too, as a Nick Lodolo illness necessitated a bullpen game on Tuesday. In fact, after re-calling Reiver Sanmartin yesterday, the lefty has already been optioned for a fresh arm. That’s that type of situation we’re dealing with here. Thankfully for Cincinnati, Zack Littell has eaten innings with the best of them throughout 2025. Despite a relatively underwhelming 4.53 xERA and a 4.79 FIP, Littell is one of only 16 men to have thrown at least 160 innings entering today’s action. However, that level of raw volume has translated into some dubious counting stats, as well, as Littell is also one of only two men to have conceded at least 30 opponent home runs. That could certainly be an issue at Great American “Small” Park against a Toronto lineup that ranks first in wRC+ (134) and fourth in long balls (67) since the All-Star break.
Leading the offensive charge for the Jays has been George Springer, who was left for dead by many after a very underwhelming 2024 campaign. Instead, Springer comes into this rubber match slashing .375/.457/.704 with a 219 wRC+ since July 1. That stretch includes a two-week stint on the IL after Springer took a fastball off the head, yet a pair of home runs on Tuesday would suggest that the soon-to-be 36-year-old is feeling no ill effects from said concussion. Springer somehow wasn’t an All-Star in 2025. Suddenly, he might end up on AL MVP ballots.
Blue Jays vs. Reds pick, best bet
Best Bet: George Springer 2+ Total Bases (-120)
Springer is red-hot and possesses 98th percentile marks in expected wOBA (.412) and expected slugging rate (.583).
Strong Lean: Blue Jays -1.5 (+101)
There’s no value on the moneyline, so you might as well try the run line. Bieber has looked like an ace in his first two starts with Toronto, if that continues tonight, this cashes.
