After the offseason brought a litany of changes to head coaching situations around the NFL, there are plenty of intriguing picks for the Coach of the Year Award. With newcomers like Ben Johnson and Liam Coen in their first lead roles as well as established names like Mike Vrabel and Pete Carroll in new situations, bettors on DraftKings Sportsbook can pick their poison.
With the 2025 regular season set to kick off on September 4, time is running out on preseason values in the NFL futures markets. In this article, we’ll look at a breakdown of betting strategy for Coach of the Year and exactly how you should bet this award, as well as a couple of top selections to win it.
Coach of the Year betting strategy
Coach of the Year futures markets can be one of the most exciting to follow throughout the season. Those who usually keep up with the award will probably know how the strategy works, but for those who are new to betting on NFL coaches, here’s a quick crash course courtesy of some experts.
There are essentially three categories of candidates for this award.
- Improvement coaches
- Circumstances coaches
- Wins coaches
Improvement coaches
The first category of candidates are usually the ones who tend to win Coach of the Year most often, or at least see their name as a top competitor. Improvement coaches are a straightforward concept — these guys helm teams which take a significant leap from their prior seasons, typically by at least a four or five-win margin. Now, that doesn’t mean that every coach is eligible to fall into the improvement category. These leaders usually helm teams which were either at the bottom or the middle of the NFL standings in the prior season simply because a significant improvement in the win column looks like a more realistic possibility.
For example, expecting Seattle Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald to win Coach of the Year on the basis of improvement doesn’t make a ton of sense because his team already won 10 games last season. However, Liam Coen takes over a Jacksonville Jaguars squad which won just four contests in 2024, so a significant improvement to eight, nine, or even 10 wins does fall within the realm of possibility and makes him a top pick. Improvement coaches often see the benefit of narrative in their cases for the award since voters love a good turnaround in which a poor team takes a meaningful leap into the playoff picture.
One note on improvement coaches is that sometimes the quarterback gets the credit for such a jump rather than the staff. In the last two seasons, Dan Quinn (2024) and DeMeco Ryans (2023) stand out as improvement coaches since the Denver Broncos and Houston Texans each made significant strides into the postseason picture. However, quarterbacks Jayden Daniels and C.J. Stroud received much of the credit due to stellar rookie campaigns and their coaches didn’t ultimately win the award despite significant team improvement. That means Tennessee Titans head coach Brian Callahan may fall into the same batch of names working alongside No. 1 pick Cam Ward if the franchise takes a leap.
Circumstances coaches
The second category of coach doesn’t win it as often as the improvement coaches do, nor can one truly predict what names emerge as members of this group. Candidates who fall under the circumstances category earn the label throughout the season as they deal with adversity.
Generally, injuries to key players are one of the main reasons a coach could enter the circumstances category. See Mike Vrabel in 2021, who saw Derrick Henry play just eight games but still coached the Titans to a 12-5 record. Aside from the injury route, these Coach of the Year candidates can also win due to personnel turnover. Look no further than two-time winner Kevin Stefanski, whose 2023 Cleveland Browns started five different players at quarterback throughout the season but still went 11-6 and made the NFL Playoffs.
That’s the thing about circumstances coaches — we won’t know who they are until the season begins. Thus, they’re guys to watch for throughout the campaign rather than trying to predict who ends up as a qualifier for the category. With that said, if you are desperate to predict a circumstances coach, Sean McVay looks like a top candidate due to his reputation, the Los Angeles Rams’ win-now roster and lingering questions about Matthew Stafford’s health as he deals with a back injury. Once more though, bettors are better off steering clear of predicting circumstances coaches because they win less often than improvement guys, and the NFL brings so much randomness to begin with.
Wins coaches
Finally, we have wins coaches. This category is by far the riskiest to bet on since candidates who fall into it are largely rare. Simply put, wins coaches need to prove without a shadow of a doubt that their team can beat anyone in any given week.
While 12-13 wins are a lot in the NFL, that mark won’t cut it to qualify for a Coach of the Year case if the record is all a candidate has working in their favor. Instead, wins coaches essentially must string together 15 or more victories to see their name in the finalist pool. Dan Campbell was one such candidate after the Detroit Lions went 15-2 last season, and it should be noted he was not an improvement or circumstances pick since his team went 12-5 in the prior season to win an NFC North title while remaining very healthy on offense (though the lines here are slightly blurred with injuries to the defense). Campbell ultimately didn’t win Coach of the Year as it instead went to Kevin O’Connell, who led the Minnesota Vikings to a 14-3 record after going 7-10 in 2023.
Again, the odds of a wins coach emerging with this award are generally the lowest of the three categories. Over the last decade, the only Coach of the Year winner who mostly falls into this category is Ron Rivera, who led the Carolina Panthers to a 15-1 record in 2015. Going back even further, Bill Belichick was the last true wins coach to add the trophy to his case with a perfect 16-0 record in 2007. Bettors can try and bank on an amazing season from the NFL’s elite teams, but even two losses throughout the year can jeopardize a coach’s case.
Recent precedent
Over the last decade, one can argue that nine of the 10 Coach of the Year winners were all improvement coaches. Ron Rivera, Jason Garrett, Sean McVay, Matt Nagy, John Harbaugh, Kevin Stefanski, Brian Daboll and Kevin O’Connell all saw their teams win a minimum of four more games than in the previous season. Several of those names such as McVay, Nagy, and Daboll took over poor teams which won just a handful of games in the prior campaign and led them to winning records in their first season as the head coach. Others such as Rivera, Garrett, and O’Connell were already in place as well, but saw their teams make major strides in their winning years.
The one commonality of everyone but Harbaugh is that all of their franchises finished with a losing record in the season prior to their Coach of the Year campaigns. Still, even Harbaugh’s 2019 Baltimore Ravens team went from 10-6 to 14-2 in the first full season with Lamar Jackson under center, which meets the minimum threshold of the four-game improvement bettors should target.
The lines can occasionally become blurred in these winners. For example, of the two circumstances winners outlined earlier, Stefanski (2023) and Vrabel, the former actually did see a four-game improvement as well from the prior year. Vrabel’s team finished 11-5 in 2020 and 12-5 in 2021, so he’s the only coach who only fits the circumstances mold. Rivera’s 2015 Panthers squad went 15-1, which means he absolutely fell under the wins category, but they also beat their 7-8 record from the previous season by eight wins. Even last year’s winner, Kevin O’Connell, blurred the lines with a seven-win improvement, 14 total victories, and the circumstances of the Sam Darnold reclamation project following Kirk Cousins’ departure and the preseason injury to first-round pick J.J. McCarthy.
What’s the lesson here? Target coaches whose teams can take a significant leap and win at least four more games on their way to a winning record.
2025 NFL Coach of the Year best bets, top picks
Now that we’ve brushed up on the categories and strategy involved in betting the Coach of the Year futures market, let’s make one more thing clear before we jump into the top picks. When betting with preseason odds and even through the initial couple of weeks of the regular season, improvement coaches are absolutely the category to target as previously established. It’s best to avoid trying to get too cute with these.
Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, +1200
The Jacksonville Jaguars have seen plenty of turnover at head coach over the last few seasons, but it seems they’ve finally found a guy who might stick. While Liam Coen’s “Duval” quote from his introductory press conference provided plenty of jokes online, he brings high-upside possibilities to a team in desperate need of quality leadership. At +1200 odds to win Coach of the Year on DraftKings Sportsbook, third-best, Coen looks like a fantastic bet and bona fide top pick.
Last season, Coen served as offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team which finished third in offensive yardage and fourth in points scored. The franchise ranked fourth in rushing yardage, third in passing yardage and second in passing touchdowns. Quarterback Baker Mayfield logged 4,000-plus yards and a career-high 41 passing touchdowns with an absurd TD% of 7.2%. Plus, the Buccaneers became the first team in NFL history to complete 70% of their passes and average over 5.0 yards per carry in a season, while their third-down conversion rate of 50.9% led the league and ranked among the 15 best in NFL history. That’s quite the resume.
Coen now takes over a Jaguars offense with a franchise quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, a young alpha wideout in Brian Thomas Jr. and a generational two-way stud in Travis Hunter. The backfield committee of Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby and Bhayshul Tuten sees talent between the three as well, so they have the pieces to score plenty of points. Coen’s play-calling ability can create opportunities for his players, especially with his love of motion concepts after Jacksonville rarely utilized them in the past, so the sky feels like the limit if things work out here.
In a weak division, Coen can lead the Jaguars to a winning record and significant improvement after the franchise went just 4-13 last season. Their strength of schedule falls ninth-easiest with a cumulative opponent record of 134-154 and just six games against 2024 playoff teams. As a bonus, Trevor Lawrence has largely disappointed throughout his career, so Coen would likely receive credit for helping him unlock his game rather than the other way around if this offense really does live up to expectations.
Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots, +600
The Patriots went just 4-13 last season and ultimately fired head coach Jerod Mayo, replacing him with Mike Vrabel. The hire certainly qualified as one of the best ones during this coaching cycle, if not the top selection. For a team which needed an experienced leader at the helm, Vrabel absolutely brings a battle-tested attitude, winning history and the potential to totally shift the culture of this squad.
We saw how Vrabel led the Titans to multiple playoff appearances during his stint with the franchise, and as mentioned earlier, he’s already won Coach of the Year once before in his career. With a 99-54 record over his six years in Tennessee, Vrabel brings proven winning pedigree that other unproven candidates like Coen and Ben Johnson don’t yet possess. With Drake Maye entering his second season under center, the addition of offensive talent such as TreVeyon Henderson, Stefon Diggs and Kyle Williams, plus solid coaching on the defensive side of things, the Patriots are positioned to take a leap this year.
In the opening eight weeks of the campaign, New England faces the Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers, Panthers, Bills, Saints, Titans and Browns. Of those contests, all but the game against Buffalo feel very winnable for the Patriots. In a world where they emerge victorious in even five of those eight, Vrabel and the Patriots will have already exceeded last season’s win total. They can find themselves well-positioned to meet the improvement coach standards thanks to the third-easiest schedule, which sees just five matchups against 2024 playoff teams and a cumulative 124-165 opponent record. The pieces are in place and the vibes are good in Foxboro, so it’s easy to see why Vrabel comes in as the favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook at +600 odds — bet him now before those shorten with some wins in the opening weeks.
Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, +700
Vrabel may enter as the favorite, but new Bears head coach Ben Johnson falls very close behind at +700 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Chicago shuffled through a couple of top bosses since Matt Eberflus’ Coach of the Year win back in 2018, but Johnson now looks like the most promising name to come to the Windy City in a very long time. He’s an intriguing bet, and it’s almost surprising that he’s not the top candidate here, but there’s two major red flags among the green ones in his case for this award.
On one hand, the Bears have built a roster which can theoretically compete for a Super Bowl. Just take a look around at the talent — a No. 1 pick with quarterback Caleb Williams; an embarrassment of riches with pass catchers D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland; D’Andre Swift at halfback behind an improved offensive line; and a defense with plenty of talent. The pieces are in place for a significantly better campaign than last year’s 5-12 finish, especially with Johnson at the helm. The 39-year-old earned the reputation of scheme guru after his Lions offense finished top-five in both points and yardage in four straight seasons.
However, the nature of the NFC North beast and Chicago’s overall strength of schedule may prove problematic. Despite losing both of their coordinators, the Lions aren’t going anywhere, the Green Bay Packers just added Micah Parsons and Matthew Golden to a playoff-caliber roster, and the Vikings retained nearly their entire playoff team as well and have a fantastic coach in Kevin O’Connell. Any of these teams could make the postseason as well as create significant issues for Johnson and the Bears during the season. Chicago’s strength of schedule ranks third-hardest (due in no small part to their division) with a 165-121 opponent record in 2024 as well as 10 matchups against playoff teams.
That’s not to say Johnson can’t win Coach of the Year — he’s second in the odds for a reason — but the Bears have one of the widest ranges of outcomes of any team this season. In their first five weeks, they play the Vikings, Lions and Commanders with easier dates against the Dallas Cowboys and Las Vegas Raiders in Weeks 3 and 4. If Chicago struggles out of the gate at 2-3, bettors who believe in this team long term can probably get Johnson at longer odds around that point.
