In the final month of this MLB season, a lot of the playoff-hopeful teams are feeling the heat, and every game will be necessary for seeding. Both the New York Mets and the Detroit Tigers are feeling that heat.
The Tigers have a comfortable lead in the AL Central, but are jockeying for the No. 1 seed in the AL every day with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Mets are in striking distance of the Phillies in the NL East, but their lead for the third Wild Card Spot isn’t completely safe; both the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants are nipping at their heels.
The Mets enter as -115 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Let’s dig into a preview, prediction, and best bet for this Mets vs. Tigers matchup.
Mets vs. Tigers prediction, preview
The balls have been flying all over Comerica Park in the first two games of the series. On Monday, the two teams went toe-to-toe in a 10-8 victory for the Mets. Their hot hitting continued on Tuesday in another victory for New York, this time by a 12-5 margin. On Wednesday, these pitchers will have to lock in before the scoreline gets away from them. And that may prove to be a problem.
The New York experiment with Clay Holmes as a starting pitcher has been generally successful. The former Yankees closer has thrown 142 innings across 27 starts while pitching a 3.60 ERA. But, having already doubled his career high in IP, they have to be careful with the 32-year-old’s arm. And that’s where the problems begin for the Mets.
In Holmes’ first 13 starts, he averaged 5.6 IP. That’s gone down to 4.9 IP on average over his last 14. His ERA has gone up from 2.95 to 4.30 when comparing those two stretches. Managing a starting pitcher that doesn’t go deep into games is nothing new for the Mets, and they reinforced at the deadline to account for that. But that hasn’t gone as planned.
Ryan Helsley, their significant bullpen acquisition, is struggling mightily. The rest of the bullpen is failing to hold up to the moniker of “best pen in baseball” being thrown around after the deadline. That creates problems against an offense swinging the bats well.
It hasn’t been a fun stretch for Casey Mize either. After pitching seven scoreless innings on July 5th, the All-Star’s ERA was down to 2.63. In eight starts since then, Mize has recorded a 7.20 ERA. He’s given up 46 hits in 35 innings across those eight starts, failing to provide real innings or quality.
With these pitchers on the ropes, and both teams boasting less-than-elite bullpens, expect the ball to keep flying on Wednesday
