UPDATE: Emmet Sheehan, not Shohei Ohtani, will be the Dodgers’ starting pitcher Wednesday night.
Prior to giving up four runs in five innings of last night’s defeat against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw had a 2.52 career ERA, the lowest mark since the live-ball era began in 1920. Now, he sits at 2.53, narrowly behind Hall of Famer Hoyt Wilhelm, who actually retired as a Dodger at the age of 49 in 1972.
While Kershaw’s slight dip in the history books is irrelevant to tonight’s game or to the southpaw’s legacy, it underscores the inconsistent nature of this Los Angeles season.
Game 2 of the Dodgers’ series against the Pirates will start at 6:40 p.m. ET. Shohei Ohtani will take the mound for Los Angeles against Pittsburgh’s Braxton Ashcraft.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates prediction, preview
The Dodgers’ defeat yesterday wasn’t even necessarily Kershaw’s fault, for the future Hall of Famer settled down after giving up four runs in the first inning, offering four scoreless innings of work to give his team a chance. Los Angeles even managed to charge Pirates top prospect Bubba Chandler for the first three runs of his MLB career, as Ohtani and Andy Pages both went yard. But once again, it was the Dodgers’ bullpen that got in the way, as Edgardo Henriquez conceded three runs while getting one out, continuing a season-long struggle for a unit that has posted the 11th-worst ERA in baseball. For Pittsburgh, it was a rare late-game fireworks display from a team that has posted the league’s worst OPS from the seventh inning onwards.
While Ohtani completed the fifth inning for the first time in his most recent start, conceding one run on two hits while walking two and striking out nine, there’s no guarantee that he’ll provide length. It’s hard to read too much into his poor last two road starts (nine earned runs in 8.1 innings), given that one of them came in Colorado, but it wouldn’t be entirely surprising if Ohtani was pulled short of 15 outs. I expect him to be good: his 2.27 FIP would be the best in baseball if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify. He ranks in or near the top quartile in all 12 Statcast categories except for chase rate and ground ball rate.
Los Angeles shouldn’t underestimate Ashcraft, though. The 25-year-old was one of the league’s better relievers over his first two months of the season, posting a 2.17 ERA through the end of July, and once he was transferred to a starting role after a poor couple of appearances to begin August, he’s been stellar, posting a 1.42 ERA and 1.66 FIP across 19.0 innings. To be fair, he wasn’t great as a starter for Triple-A Indianapolis to start the season and he’s faced a couple of pretty easy opponents, but with a high-90’s fastball and top-septile average exit velocity, chase rate, barrel rate, and ground ball rate rankings, his tools are clear. The Dodgers are heavily reliant on their ability to generate fly balls, so Ashcraft’s ability to keep the ball down could keep his team in the game.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8 (-103)
It’s possible that a Los Angeles bullpen without its two most reliable pitchers — Alex Vesia is injured, and Henriquez has only pitched on back-to-back days twice this season — or a Pirates bullpen that has been awful since dealing away David Bednar at the trade deadline will ruin this prop. However, I trust both starting pitchers to keep the scores low for the first five innings.
Strong Lean: Shohei Ohtani 7+ Strikeouts Thrown (+100)
It all depends if Ohtani is truly ready to pitch five innings for the second straight week, but even if he doesn’t, he has the chance to put up gaudy strikeout numbers. The Oshu, Japan native has fanned seven or more strikeouts in three of his past four starts, and Pittsburgh has struck out at an above-average rate all season.
