Entering the MLB season, some teams were easy to predict, while others’ actual results have been fairly unexpected. Two of this season’s most surprising sides — the Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins — will face off tonight in the third game of a four-game set.
For the White Sox, the surprise is positive: though they’re still the worst team in the American League by 11.5 games, they’ve already increased their win total from last season by 10 wins. It’d be hard for a Chicagoan to be less disappointed than a Twins fan; Minnesota was a division winner as recently as 2023 and, after losing each of the first two games of the series, has the second-worst record in the AL.
Tonight’s clash will start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The White Sox will have Yoendrys Gómez toe the rubber, while Zebby Matthews starts for Minnesota.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins prediction, preview
For Chicago, both the wins and losses have come in spurts; since the All-Star break, it has won 10 of 14, then lost 14 of 17, won three straight, lost five straight, then won three straight. Across that span, the White Sox have had the Twins’ number, beating them in four of the five games, with yesterday’s 12-3 win being the most convincing. In that game, Andrew Benintendi went deep twice and rookie Kyle Teel — who’s posted a .325/.398/.500 slash line since the All-Star break and will serve as the designated hitter tonight — continued to make a statement. All in all, since Minnesota’s trade deadline fire sale, the White Sox have posted slightly better numbers on both sides of the ball and have posted identical 11-19 records.
It depends what version of Gómez shows up for Chicago tonight. He’s made four starts since being converted to a rotational role. In his two good starts, he’s combined for 9.2 innings, giving up three hits and one earned run while walking four and striking out 13. In his two bad starts, he’s conceded nine runs (seven earned) on nine hits in nine innings, issuing seven free passes and striking out nine. His 5.81 expected ERA indicates that he’s closer to the latter pitcher than the former one, but it’s worth noting that one of his good starts came against the post-deadline Twins. It’s hard to look too hard into his advanced numbers, since the sample size is small, and a 2.12 ERA in 11 Triple-A starts this year provides a reason for optimism.
Matthews, too, is hardly a model of consistency. The 25-year-old had a 5.21 ERA upon being recalled to the majors after the All-Star break, and since then, he’s put up a 4.99 mark across 39.2 innings (eight starts), though his 3.98 FIP indicates that he’s gotten somewhat unlucky. There have been starts in which Matthews has looked good, and he’s coming off of a six-inning, seven-hit, two-run outing, but he’ll have others in which his control suffers and he can’t keep the ball in the park. Like Gómez, Matthews seems to be a Quadruple-A-level pitcher, posting a 1.72 ERA in Triple-A despite his struggles in the majors. He’s slightly ahead of the White Sox starter on the learning curve, as his whiff and strikeout rates sit in the top three deciles.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Chicago White Sox Moneyline (+152)
Perhaps I shouldn’t overreact to a few games of late-season baseball between two teams who have nothing to play for, but this game seems far closer to a toss-up than the odds would indicate. Matthews isn’t a lot better than Gómez, and home field advantage doesn’t mean much for a team that has gone just 5-11 at Target Field since the trade deadline.
Strong Lean: Kyle Teel 2+ Total Bases (+120)
Teel has recorded two or more total bases in each of the series’ first two games and eight of his last 13 overall. Plus, both he and Matthews have relatively extreme platoon splits: he’s posted an OPS 198 points higher against righties than lefties, and Matthews has conceded an OPS 150 points higher against southpaws. The 23-year-old will serve as the leadoff hitter for the first time.
