San Diego’s quest for a World Series is still full speed ahead. If the Padres have any dreams of October glory, winning the NL West is crucial. That’s why Wednesday’s series finale with the Orioles is so important. Baltimore has taken the first two games of this series. Can the Birds complete the sweep tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between the Orioles and the Padres.
The Padres are favorites (-168) over the Orioles, with the over/under set at eight runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Orioles vs. Padres prediction, preview
It’ll be a battle between southpaws this afternoon in SoCal. For the Padres, that means Nestor Cortes will get the nod. Despite battling injuries for most of 2025, the veteran is beginning to look like his old self. In five games since joining the Padres, the 30-year-old has notched a 3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 19 strikeouts. Those aren’t eye-popping stats, but it’s nothing to sneeze at for this injury-depleted San Diego rotation. The former All-Star has been somewhat inconsistent. Following a six-inning, scoreless outing vs. the Dodgers, he surrendered three runs in three innings vs. Minnesota last week.
Which version of Nasty Nestor will we see on Wednesday? If past history is any indicator, the hurler could be at his best. Over nine career outings vs. Baltimore, the eighth-year pro owns a stellar 2.20 ERA. In addition, the Orioles have recorded the league’s ninth-lowest OPS vs. left-handed pitching (.661). This offense has struggled lately, with stars such as Adley Rutschman (oblique) and Jordan Westburg (ankle) on the injured list. However, recent call-ups Dylan Beavers (.314 batting average) and Jeremiah Jackson (.333) have emerged as major contributors.
Pitching hasn’t been a strength for the Orioles, and that’s unlikely to change on Wednesday. Former top prospect Cade Povich has yet to live up to his potential in the big leagues. Through 18 appearances this season, the 25-year-old has recorded a disappointing 5.04 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 100 strikeouts. If there’s reason for optimism, he’s allowed three runs or less in three of his last four starts. One of Povich’s biggest weaknesses is a propensity for giving up long balls (1.5 HR/9). That might not hurt him against the Padres, who have hit the second-fewest homers in baseball (120).
Orioles vs. Padres pick, best bet
Best Bet: Orioles vs. Padres under 8.5 total runs (-127)
On paper, neither Cortes or Povich have done enough to earn the trust of bettors. However, the same can be said for each of tonight’s lineups. In the spacious confines of Petco Park, both starters should find a way to keep things manageable. Expect a close, low-scoring affair in San Diego on Wednesday.
