Vegas fans have a lot to be excited about: by the time the Athletics’ future stadium is complete and the team is ready to move to its new home, they should be pretty good. Though the Athletics, temporarily based in West Sacramento, sit last in the AL West, their 64-76 record is certainly respectable. Their 7:45 p.m. ET rubber match against the 69-71 St. Louis Cardinals is more or less a toss-up.
Staff ace Jeffrey Springs will start for the Athletics, while St. Louis will counter with Matthew Liberatore.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals prediction, preview
The Athletics showcased their bright future in the first game of the series, picking up an 11-3 win behind a 5.2-inning, two-run gem from top pitching prospect Luis Morales. Several of the Athletics’ best players sat, with Nick Kurtz — who’s been among the league’s best hitters since June 25, putting up a ridiculous 1.215 OPS since then — and Shea Langeliers, who was named American League Player of the Month after a sensational power surge, both hitting the pine. But last night, Ivan Herrera’s sixth-inning homer was enough to tie up the series in a low-scoring affair. The series has showcased the Athletics’ inconsistency: despite having the seventh-best offense, their relief pitching has been too variable.
This season, Springs has been good but not great, posting a 4.17 ERA in 151.0 innings, and the team has won 15 of his 28 starts. Advanced numbers aren’t particularly kind to him — in part because of his low strikeout rate, his FIP is 0.6 runs higher than his ERA and he ranks in just the 29th percentile in overall pitching run value — but he’s not going to pitch the Athletics out of the game, having given up more than four earned runs just four times. Plus, he’s been much better away from hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, posting a 3.66 ERA in 78.2 innings on the road. If the ice-cold Cardinals get to him, they’ll have to generate hard contact against a pitcher who struggles to keep the ball down.
Liberatore, like Springs, is coming off of a poor August. He recorded just a 5.40 ERA across 26.2 innings in August, and St. Louis went 3-3 in his starts. Throughout the month, he struggled a lot with his command, walking 10 and striking out 19, and he also conceded four unearned runs. He fares worse than Springs by advanced numbers, as he struggles to induce whiffs or strikeouts and also ranks in just the 20th percentile in average exit velocity. The Athletics aren’t particularly suited to take advantage of his weaknesses — they whiff at the fifth-highest rate and have the seventh-lowest average exit velocity — but with Langeliers posting a 1.057 OPS against lefties, he’ll be the guy to look out for.
Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals pick, best bet
Best Bet: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline (-113)
Although Springs on the road is a somewhat better pitcher than Liberatore at home, Kurtz might struggle, since he’s been awful against left-handers this season. Getting a Kurtz with roughly half the effectiveness should hurt the Athletics’ chances of victory.
Strong Lean: Matthew Liberatore O2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-130)
If the Cardinals are going to win and Liberatore is going to give up more than two runs, their offense will need to be better than it’s been over the last 30 days (second-to-last in OPS). Thankfully for St. Louis, it has had an average offense at home, and the Athletics have had the fourth-worst bullpen this season, so the game is far from over even if Springs exits with a lead.
