This is the second contest of a three-game series in Cincinnati between the Reds and visiting Toronto Blue Jays.
Jose Berrios is scheduled to pitch for Toronto, while Nick Lodolo is slated to start for Cincinnati.
Blue Jays at Reds prediction, preview
Jose Berrios has never been great, but he’s been one of the better innings eaters over half decade or so, finishing around 190 innings pitched in five of seven seasons. He’s at 152.2 innings so far this year. Toronto skipped his last start to give Berrios a little breather, so he will be well-rested for this one. At age 31, the fastball is averaging a career-low 93 mph and the strikeout rate is at 20.3%. The walk rate isn’t bad at 7.7% while the 1.3 HR/9 is fine. The ERA is 3.95 but the FIP is higher at 4.41. The barrel rate is a career-high 10.9% while the hard-hit rate is 41.3%.
15 of the 22 home runs have come off the bat of righties. The strikeout rate is higher against lefties, but so is the walk rate. Berrios has been site neutral.
In 27 starts, Berrios has allowed more than three earned runs eight times. He’s gone at least six innings 14 times. This will be his first time facing Cincinnati this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Reds have the fifth-highest strikeout rate but only the 24th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 14th in MLB.
Nick Lodolo used to be a high-strikeout arm with control issues, like most young pitchers. He’s suffered injuries in his brief MLB career, but it looks like everything has come together in his fourth season. The strikeout rate is down at 23.8% after being close to 30% early on. The walk rate has seen a significant improvement though, going from 8.8% his rookie season to 4.6% through 134.1 innings this season. Lodolo has allowed 13 home runs. The ERA is 3.22 while the FIP is 3.66. The swinging-strike rate is 11.3% while the chase rate is 30.6%. All four pitches have a positive run value, with the changeup the most prolific at 7.9. The sinker and curveball are at 2.3 and 2.2 respectively.
15 of the 17 home runs have come off the bat of righties. 12 of the 17 home runs have been served up at home. Interestingly, the K-BB% is 4.7% higher against righties. The K-BB% is 4.5% higher on the road.
In 24 starts, Lodolo has allowed more than three earned runs four times. He’s gone at least six innings 13 times. This will be the first time facing Toronto this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Blue Jays strike out at the 30th-highest rate while posting the 13th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks third in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Toronto has the 23rd-lowest FIP, while Cincinnati has the 22nd-lowest since August 1.
Blue Jays at Reds pick, best bet
Berrios in Great American Ball Park seems pretty, pretty good for the Reds bats. I like Lodolo but this is a tough matchup in a ballpark where he has struggled a bit.
