If you want a reminder of what meaningful September baseball feels like, look no further than tonight’s tilt between the Yankees and the Astros. While both teams are near locks for the postseason, each is still fighting for the division, as New York trails Toronto by 2.5 games in the AL East and Houston is up only three games on Seattle in the AL West.
On top of that, the Yankees are looking to fight back against the narrative that they can’t beat good opponents. Yes, New York has won seven of its last eight contests entering Tuesday, yet most of those wins came at the hands of the lowly White Sox and Nationals. Conversely, since the beginning of June, the club is a paltry 7-16 in matchups with other American League playoff teams. Not great at all.
Can the Yankees buck that trend and continue to gain ground on the Blue Jays? Let’s preview this pivotal matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Astros prediction, preview
Aside from the obvious late-season stakes, the pitching matchup is a real draw in this tilt. Max Fried will take the mound for New York, looking to continue his recent run of sterling outings. The left-hander had fallen into quite a rut of poor results throughout July and early August, yet he’s bounced back of late, allowing just a single earned run across his past 13.0 innings of work. For the season as a whole, Fried is basically doing what he’s done for the last half-decade, maintaining a 3.06 ERA and a 3.22 FIP over 27 starts. He was never quite as amazing as his numbers prior to the All-Star break suggested, but Fried is still a legitimate ace and a man deserving of his hefty contract.
Framber Valdez is the other half of this duel of decorated southpaws. Much like Fried, Valdez is also on the heels of a fantastic outing which ended a not-so spectacular run of starts. Valdez threw seven scoreless innings against the Rockies last Wednesday; but considering the matchup and the location of that contest, it might not be enough of a performance to overshadow the fact that Valdez’s ERA in August prior to besting Colorado outside of Coors was an ugly 7.33. That includes a very underwhelming appearance at Yankee Stadium, where Valdez surrendered four earned runs in 5.2 innings with only one strikeout. For 2025, Valdez’s 3.18 ERA and 3.07 FIP are quite promising, yet he’s clearly not been the best version of himself for a month.
This won’t be an easy matchup to get back on track, either. New York leads baseball with a 118 wRC+ against LHPs and, across just the past two weeks, the Yankees have hit 38 home runs and sport a mind-numbing .300 ISO. For some context, only four other teams have even registered 20 long balls in that same span of time. That said, Valdez isn’t one who often serves up meatballs. The 31-year-old possesses a 98th percentile ground ball rate (60.6%) and that’s translated into conceded 0.49 opponent home runs per nine — the lowest qualified mark in MLB.
Yankees vs. Astros pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8 (-115)
I’ll trust the two aces. Fried’s looked great in his last two starts and, even when he’s been bad, Valdez never allows any home runs. The Yankees don’t score much without the long ball.
Strong Lean: Yankees ML (-115)
New York has the fourth highest road winning percentage (.515) and Houston hasn’t been hitting well lately. The Astros have just a 91 wRC+ over the past 30 days.
