It’s September. There’s only four weeks left in MLB’s regular season, but don’t fret! It’ll be four weeks full of betting analysis and prop suggestions here at DK Network. After all, we wouldn’t abandon you right as all the playoff races are getting good.
With a full slate on action on the diamond this evening, here are my two best bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
Nationals ML (-115)
I sort of love betting a game like this in September. A game that truly has no meaning outside of the pride of the 56 players making up these two rosters. Like, no one is going out of their way tonight to watch a 54-win Nationals team take on a Marlins club that is eight games below .500. Well, initially no one was. Now you’ll be locked in, holding on tightly to your Washington moneyline ticket.
The big reason for my lean towards the Nationals is the presence of Cade Cavalli. Prior to a nightmarish performance last week against the Yankees in the Bronx, Cavalli has looked great in his return to MLB, pitching to a 2.82 ERA and a 3.62 FIP across four starts. The former first-round pick has also been lighting up the radar gun, touching 100 mph on multiple occasions in August. Cavalli has yet to allow an earned run at Nationals Park in 2025, and that includes tossing seven scoreless innings versus a very good Phillies lineup back on August 16. This Miami team is not New York. I think Cavalli can re-find his form on Thursday evening.
I mean it. The Marlins are basically the polar opposite of the Yankees at the moment. Cavalli was really burned by the home run ball in his last appearance, yet that’s par for the course against a New York club that owns a league-high .300 ISO across the past two weeks. In that same span of time where the Yankees have clubbed 38 long balls, Miami has eight. It’s .118 ISO sits 28th in the MLB. Add in Adam Mazur’s career 7.06 ERA at the big league level, and this simply isn’t a matchup to fear. Take the home team as a slight favorite.
Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals
Athletics ML (-108)
Let’s break down another game that no one cares about, shall we?
The long and short of this bet comes down to the fact that a team starting Miles Mikolas is currently favored to win a baseball game. To me, that’s an automatic opportunity to take an underdog. For the season as a whole, Mikolas combines a third percentile whiff rate (17.1%) with a fourth percentile opponent barrel rate (12.0%). That’s a quick version of why the 37-year-old comes into Tuesday’s action in possession of a 5.04 ERA and a 5.44 xERA across 130.1 innings. Has Mikolas been better in St. Louis? Yes. However, the opportunity to pitch at Busch Stadium should benefit both starters in this matchup.
Tonight, Luis Severino will come off the IL and make his first start for the Athletics in nearly a month. Severino has been outspoken about how much he dislikes the A’s temporary home field, Sutter Health Park, and the numbers back-up his complaints. While Severino sports a grotesque 6.34 ERA in Sacramento in 2025, that figure falls to a 3.17 ERA when he’s toeing the rubber on the road. I’d expect Severino to have a positive impact in his return, especially considering how poorly the Cardinals have hit over the past 30 days. In that span, St. Louis ranks 28th in MLB in wRC+ (85) and 29th in ISO (.123). Woof.
