This is the second contest of a three-game series in Washington between the Nationals and visiting Miami Marlins.
Adam Mazur is scheduled to pitch for Miami, while Cade Cavalli is slated to start for Miami.
Marlins at Nationals prediction, preview
Adam Mazur has started only two games this season and pitched 9.2 innings, and they haven’t been good innings. He’s walked five batters, struck out seven and allowed six earned runs with one home run. Mazur averages 95 mph on the fastball, but the pitch has a -1.1 run value. The sinker is the only pitch with a postive run value. The average exit velocity is only 87.5 mph and the launch angle is 6.8 degrees, but the barrel rate is 15.6%. The sample size is obviously small and last season’s 33.2 innings with San Diego isn’t robust either, but Mazur also had a low strikeout rate with control issues.
Against right-handed pitching, the Nationals have the 25th-highest strikeout rate and the 25th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 20th in MLB.
Cade Cavalli has only made five starts this season and pitched 24.2 innings. He is averaging 97 mph on the fastball but the ERA is 5.11 while the FIP is 5.6, which is interesting because the BABIP is elevated at .333 and the strand rate is 79.8%. The walk rate is only 6.1% but the strikeout rate is 19.1%. The average exit velocity is 88.3 mph and the barrel rate is 6%. The swinging strike rate is 13.5% and the chase rate is 30.8%. I am a bit flummoxed with Cavalli. The HR/FB is 23.1%. Most of those numbers point towards a lower FIP, not a higher one. Shrug.
All six home runs have been served up on the road. The K-BB% is 22.2% at home and only 7.1% on the road. The FIP is 1.45 vs. 9.12.
In five starts, Cavalli has allowed more than three earned runs twice. He’s gone at least six innings twice. This will be his first time facing Miami this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Marlins strike out at the 23rd-highest rate while posting the 20th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 12th in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Miami has the 30th-lowest FIP, while Washington has the 26th-lowest since Aug. 1.
Marlins at Nationals pick, best bet
Cavalli confounds me, but many of the numbers are excellent. And he’s at home, where he’s been very good. The Marlins are no offensive juggernaut.
