This is the opener of a three-game series in Pittsburgh between the Pirates and visiting Los Angeles Dodgers.
Clayton Kershaw is scheduled to pitch for Los Angeles, while Carmen Mlodzinski is slated to start for Pittsburgh.
Dodgers at Pirates prediction, preview
Clayton Kershaw is only averaging 88 mph on the fastball and posting a 16.3% strikeout rate, but the ERA is 3.06 while the FIP is at 3.62 through 88.1 innings. Respect. The strikeout used to be over 30% in his prime. It’s been all about the slider, as it has an 8.7 run value. The ground ball rate is 50% and the barrel rate is a microscopic 4.4%. Kershaw has allowed only seven home runs.
Six of the seven home runs have come off the bat of righties. Six of the seven home runs have been served up at home. Kershaw has been split neutral while he’s been slightly better on the road. The main discrepancy is the home runs.
In 17 starts, Kershaw has allowed more than three earned runs three times. He’s gone at least six innings seven times. This will be his first time facing Pittsburgh this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Pirates have the second-highest strikeout rate and the 25th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 28th in MLB.
Carmen Mlodzinski has appeared in 27 games this season with 11 of those in a starting capacity. He’s thrown 84 innings and posted a 3.86 ERA. The FIP is lower at 3.56. He averages 96 mph on the fastball and has a 20.6% strikeout rate with a 6.4% walk rate. He’s allowed only eight home runs.
Seven of the eight home runs have been served up on the road. He’s been split neutral except that the walk rate is 3.7% higher against righties. The K-BB% is 4.4% lower on the road and the home runs have caused the FIP difference of 4.54 vs. 2.43 at home.
Mlodzinski started the first nine games. He never pitched six innings in a contest and allowed more than three earned runs four times. He was sent back to the bullpen but has started two of the last three games, going four and three innings. This will be his first time facing the Dodgers this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Dodgers strike out at the 16th-highest rate while posting the fourth-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks fourth in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Los Angeles has the 16th-lowest FIP, while Pittsburgh has the 10th-lowest since Aug. 1.
Dodgers at Pirates pick, best bet
Kershaw just knows how to pitch despite his old age and diminished stuff. The Pirates have also been brutal against left-handed pitching, so not expecting much from the Pirates offense. I don’t think Mlodzinski will be going deep in this one, but he’s been good at home and the Pirates bullpen has been effective recently.
