FIBA’s EuroBasket 2025 tournament has been full of talent, exciting moments, and big upsets. Group D has been no different. One of the biggest surprises of the tournament is that Poland, at 3-0, is ahead of France at this stage. That sets up a heavyweight clash on Tuesday for supremacy in the group.
The French are 9.5-point favorites and hold -520 odds on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 156 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this Poland–France contest.
Poland vs. France prediction, pick
The story for Poland in the group stage has been the breakout performance of Jordan Loyd. The former Toronto Raptor has scored 26+ points in all three games of the tournament, including a surreal performance in their second game. Loyd almost single-handedly delivered the win in crunch time with a flurry of tough buckets.
Their defense has also locked in over the past couple of games, and Loyd has done enough creating to lead Poland to a 3-0 record. Despite pulling multiple upsets already, this French team will be a difficult task to solve.
Without Wembanyama in the lineup, the question for France has been how to find the right rotations—and more importantly, where the offense will come from. They couldn’t find an answer in their last game, dropping a matchup to Israel that left them tied for second place in the group. A win on Tuesday is their only shot at claiming Group D. To do so against this tough Polish defense, someone will have to step up.
I’m not confident that France can find a sufficient answer to cover this spread. The defense should do a better job containing Loyd than the other teams in Group D, but this will be a closer contest than most expect.
