Trailing the Dodgers in the NL West by just 2.5 games, the Padres need every win they can get. That includes tonight’s matchup with the Orioles. Although Baltimore finds itself in last place, there’s still plenty of talent on this roster. Will that be enough to upset San Diego on the road? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between the Orioles and the Padres.
The Padres are favorites (-172) over the Orioles, with the over/under set at eight runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Orioles vs. Padres prediction, preview
Baltimore doesn’t have much to play for in the month of September. However, the O’s will be paying close attention to tonight’s starter, Tyler Wells. Once a valued member of this rotation, the right-hander underwent right elbow surgery in April of 2024. When healthy, he’s proven to be a reliable arm (career 4.06 ERA, 1.05 WHIP). Still, it’s difficult to know what kind of outing Wells will deliver following a 16-month layoff.
The deep dimensions of Petco Park are perfect for preventing home runs. That play right into the hands of Wells tonight. The 27-year-old owns a hefty 33.2% career fly-ball rate. In comparison, the Padres have hit just 56 home runs when playing in San Diego. That’s the fourth-lowest total at home for any team in baseball. Despite trading for several hitters at the trade deadline, this lineup still lacks pop. Gavin Sheets (.704) and Ramon Laureano (.569) are the only regulars slugging above .500 since August 1st.
Fortunately for the Friars, this Baltimore offense hasn’t been very impressive recently. Over their last 30 games, the Orioles have scored the league’s seventh-fewest runs (125). That should make things easier on tonight’s starter, Yu Darvish. The right-hander has been lackluster at best in 2025. Since making his season debut on July 7th, the former All-Star has posted a 5.66 ERA. However, he has been much better at home (2.95 ERA) than on the road (7.86 ERA). In addition, Darvish’s xFIP of 4.33 suggests he’s due for positive regression. An O’s player to watch out for? Jeremiah Jackson enters Tuesday on a 12-game hitting streak, batting .337 since August 1st.
Orioles vs. Padres pick, best bet
Best Bet: Padres -1.5 (+123)
There are simply too many variables here for me to feel confident in the Orioles. Wells is making his first start in over a year; he’s unlikely to throw many pitches. An awful Baltimore bullpen doesn’t make me feel great about the team’s chances. On the other side, Darvish has gotten a bit unlucky to begin his 2025 camapaign. I’d rather bank on San Diego’s starter putting it all together tonight.
