The college football season has officially arrived with one of the best Week 1 slates in recent memory. While there weren’t quite as many thrilling endings as will surely be the case as the season progresses, our first look at each program’s 2025 roster is now in the books. With some heavyweight bouts helping establish the early hierarchy of teams, there are plenty of takeaways to be had.
This has also resulted in some significant shakeups in futures markets. While you can check the latest odds on the DraftKings futures market by clicking the link, here is a look at a snapshot of the National Championship market following this weekend’s games.
There have also been some notable changes in the odds for which teams will make or miss the College Football Playoffs. Last season marked the first-ever 12-team playoff bracket. This year adopted a straight seeding method, but the same format remains in place. Following the opening weekend of action, the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for whether a team will qualify for the playoffs are as follows:
Biggest Takeaways in College Football Futures Market:
Ohio State is the National Championship Favorite
The headline matchup of Week 1 was between Ohio State and Texas. The Longhorns opened up as the top-ranked team in the AP Poll, while the Buckeyes ranked third in the opening poll as they looked to defend their National Championship.
Ohio State defeated Texas 14-7 in a defensive battle in which they kept Arch Manning in check and held Texas scoreless until the fourth quarter. Julian Sayin looked comfortable at the quarterback position and completed 13 of his 20 pass attempts for 126 passing yards and a touchdown. Texas had a fourth-quarter spark to make the game’s statistics look respectable, but the matchup was under Ohio State’s full control from just about the start to the finish.
After opening the season as co-favorites to win the National Championship at +550 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, Ohio State is now the lone National Championship favorite at +600 odds.
Texas Takes Tumble Down Futures Market
On the other side of the matchup, Texas took a tumble down the futures market. After opening as co-favorites to win the National Championship with Ohio State, their odds slipped to +750 on DraftKings Sportsbook, which ranks fourth among college football teams. Penn State (+650) and Georgia (+700) each also hold shorter odds.
The biggest reason for concern was the level of play from Arch Manning. Entering the season as the Heisman favorite at +650 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and holding some of the most hype of any quarterback in recent memory, Saturday was not the start Manning wanted. He ultimately completed 17 of his 30 pass attempts for one touchdown and one interception while adding 38 rushing yards. Manning finished the fourth quarter strong to leave something to build on, but looked rattled for large stretches of the game and missed some throws he needs to reliably make. Manning entered the fourth quarter with just 38 total passing yards and did not complete a pass over 15 yards until less than five minutes remained. The potential top NFL Draft selection now holds +1600 odds of winning the Heisman Trophy, which is tied for seventh among players.
To be fair to the 21-year-old, expectations had gotten sky-high and he kicked off the season against the defending National Champions, who also boast one of the best defenses in college football. It was not a performance Manning will remember fondly, but it is premature to fully write him off. Texas still holds some high-profile matchups against teams such as Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M with plenty of football remaining on the season. A loss to the defending champions and title favorites is far from a significant blemish, and how Manning responds will be the more notable storyline. If you are a Manning and Texas believer, this could be an opportunity for value in the futures market.
Clemson, Notre Dame, & Alabama Also Slide Down Odds
The other high-profile losers of the weekend from a National Championship odds perspective were Clemson, Notre Dame, and Alabama.
Clemson and Alabama each opened with +1000 odds of winning the National Championship, which was tied for the fifth-best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Clemson had a ranked matchup against LSU and was outperformed more than the 17-10 score indicates. LSU dominated the time of possession 37:10 to 22:50, picked up 12 more first downs, and outgained them by nearly 100 yards. Cade Klubnik struggled and Clemson was limited to just 31 total rushing yards in the matchup as well. As a result, Clemson dropped from +1000 to +1400 odds of winning the National Championship and now ranks eighth in this category. LSU saw its National Championship odds go from +1400 to +1000 following the win and will likely see a shift in the AP Poll.
Alabama was beaten outright by Florida State despite entering as double-digit favorites this weekend. The Crimson Tide were defeated 31-17 as FSU QB Tommy Castellanos backed up all his offseason talk and led Florida State to the win. Alabama saw its National Championship odds drop from +1000 to +1500 on DraftKings Sportsbook and now holds the ninth-best odds. Florida State is still a ways away from being in the National Championship conversation, but saw their odds leap to +450 to qualify for the playoffs. Their odds of winning the ACC went from +2800 entering the season to +1100 following this win.
Notre Dame was also unable to produce an opening week victory over Miami and saw their odds take a slight downtick. After entering the season with the seventh-best odds at +1200 on DraftKings Sportsbook, they now hold +1300 odds of winning it all. Miami ultimately pulled off a 27-24 victory, a result that probably said more about the Hurricanes than the Fighting Irish. CJ Carr showed some nice flashes at quarterback and Notre Dame was in it until the end, but they start the season 0-1 nonetheless. Miami opened with +4000 odds of winning the championship, but improved to +2200 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook following Carson Beck’s debut.
Other Notable National Championship Odds Shifts:
- Penn State: +700 to +650
- Georgia: +750 to +700
- Michigan: +2800 to +3000
- Oklahoma: +6000 to +5500
- USC: +10,000 to +9000
