This is the opener of a three-game series in Cincinnati between the Reds and visiting Toronto Blue Jays.
Chris Bassitt is scheduled to pitch for Toronto, while Hunter Greene is slated to start for Cincinnati.
Blue Jays at Reds prediction, preview
Chris Bassitt has a 4.14 ERA through 150 innings which is supported by the 4.17 FIP. The fastball averages 91.5 mph. The strikeout rate is 22.8% and the swinging strike rate is 9.7%. The chase rate is only 24.9%, though. Bassitt does a good job of limiting hard contact, as the average exit velocity is 87.4 mph and the hard hit rate is 35.5%. He’s allowed 22 home runs.
Lefties hit 13 of the 22 home runs. The K-BB% is 6.7% lower against lefties while the FIP is at 4.48. Bassitt has been much better at home, as the K-BB% is 5.7% higher while the FIP is 1.48 lower.
In 27 starts, Bassitt has allowed more than three earned runs eight times. He’s gone at least six innings 12 times. This will be the first time facing Cincinnati this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Reds have the fifth-highest strikeout rate but only the 24th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 14th in MLB.
Hunter Greene is averaging a whopping 99.4 mph on the fastball. He used to be a young flamethrower that didn’t know where the ball was going. He’s all grown up now, as the walk rate is way down at 5.2%, compared to over 9% in his first three MLB seasons. The strikeout rate is 30.8%, swinging strike rate is 15.3% (fourth-best in MLB) and the chase rate is 34.6%. The fly ball rate is 51.3% while the launch angle is 22 degrees. The barrel rate is 8.8% while the hard hit rate is 43%. That’s resulted in 12 home runs in 77 innings.
Interestingly, eight of the 12 home runs have been served up on the road. The numbers are similar against both lefties and righties, but seven of the 12 home runs have come off the bat of lefties.
In 14 starts, Greene has allowed more than three earned runs once. He’s gone at least six innings seven times. This will be the first time facing Toronto this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Blue Jays strike out at the 30th-highest rate while posting the 13th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks fifth in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Toronto has the 23rd-lowest FIP, while Cincinnati has the 22nd-lowest since Aug. 1.
Blue Jays at Reds pick, best bet
I love Greene and his stuff is electric. The Blue Jays have power and don’t strike out, though, so I think they will plate some runs and possibly get to the bullpen early. On the flip side, Bassitt in Great American Ball Park is a scary proposition and I think he struggles with a few pitches getting sent into the seats.
