The mighty have officially fallen: two years after facing off in the 2023 World Series, both the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks look all but certain to miss the playoffs for the second straight season. Their rematch this week carries much less intrigue than a recent Fall Classic rematch might otherwise have.
The first game will start at 8:10 p.m. ET tonight at Chase Field. Ryne Nelson will crest the hill for the Diamondbacks, while Texas opts for veteran Patrick Corbin.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Perhaps I shouldn’t be hammering in the final nail on the Rangers’ coffin just yet, given that they just took two of three off of the Los Angeles Angels then swept the Athletics at Sutter Health Park. But neither of those teams are particularly impressive. Plus, Texas got three blows in a week: the remarkably healthy Marcus Semien fouled a ball off of his foot and broke it, Cy Young Award candidate Nathan Eovaldi suffered a rotator cuff strain, and two-time World Series MVP Corey Seager underwent an appendix operation. With Arizona trading both of its corner infielders, Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez, at the trade deadline, both teams are extremely depleted, though the Diamondbacks have put together a strong offense regardless and finished August with the ninth-highest OPS.
Nelson has displayed some solid form over his last three months. The 27-year-old was fairly unimpressive in his first two MLB seasons, but since a blowup start on June 7 that saw his ERA jump from 3.43 to 4.60, he’s brought it back down into the mid-threes by posting a 2.93 mark across 80.0 innings, striking out 70 and walking 17 as Arizona has won nine of his 14 starts. Thanks in part to his volume, he’s posted a 93rd percentile pitching run value this season, and while he’s been one of baseball’s most four-seam reliant pitchers, it’s worked out: his four-seamer has been the league’s ninth-most valuable pitch. He’s been prone to the occasional hard hit, but the Rangers have only produced them at about a league-average rate and might struggle without Seager.
Corbin, meanwhile, turned back the clock in his most recent start. After opening August by allowing 17 earned runs in 13.1 innings across his first four starts, he produced an eight-inning shutout gem, conceding only three hits and a walk. By game score, it was the southpaw’s best start since May 25, 2019, when he pitched a complete-game shutout against the Miami Marlins. Still, advanced numbers aren’t particularly kind to the 36-year-old, who ranks in just the 28th percentile in pitching run value and the 21st percentile in expected ERA. He has excelled at inducing chases this season, and the Diamondbacks do chase at an above-average rate.
Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Best Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+130)
I don’t feel very confident in either of these teams, but at least I can trust that Nelson will likely turn in a solid performance, while Corbin has been a replacement-level pitcher for five years now. It’s hard for me to see a second straight gem.
Strong Lean: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 1+ RBI’s (+125)
Gurriel had a strong August, posting a .797 OPS and driving in 32 runs, the second-most in the league during the month, though he hasn’t driven in any across his last six games. The Cuban has posted an OPS 108 points higher against southpaws this season.
