This is the opener of a three-game series in Milwaukee between the Brewers and visiting Philadelphia Phillies.
Taijuan Walker is scheduled to pitch for Philadelphia, while Jacob Misiorowski is slated to start for Milwaukee.
Phillies at Brewers prediction, preview
Taijuan Walker has a 3.63 ERA through 101.2 innings this season. The FIP is much higher at 4.66, though. The strand rate looks to be the culprit at 78%. Walker just doesn’t miss bats, as the swinging strike rate is 7.2% and the chase rate is 25.2%. The strikeout rate is only 16.8%. He has done a relatively good job of limiting hard contact with a 6.5% barrel rate. Walker has allowed 15 home runs.
The strikeout rate is higher against lefties, but so is the walk rate. The FIPs are very close for both sides. Walker has been better at home except for the 1.66 HR/9 compared to 1.02 on the road.
In 17 starts, Walker has allowed more than three earned runs only three times. He’s gone at least six innings four times. This will be the first time facing Milwaukee this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Brewers have the 23rd-highest strikeout rate and the 17th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 10th in MLB.
Jacob Misiorowski has a 4.33 ERA through 43.2 innings. He’s averaging 99 mph on the fastball, though, and the FIP is down at 3.14. He’s only allowed five home runs, but his big bugaboo is the control, as the walk rate is 11.9%. Not uncommon for young flamethrowers. The strikeout rate is an eye-popping 36.9%! Wowzers. The swinging strike rate is 13.8% and the chase rate is 32.1%.
Lefties have hit four of the five home runs. The K-BB% is 30.2% against lefties vs. 18.7% against righties. Misiorowski has been much better at home, as the K-BB% is 33.3% compared to 15% while the FIP is 2 vs. 4.67.
In 10 starts, Misiorowski has allowed more than three earned runs twice. He’s gone at least six innings only twice. This will be the first time facing Philadelphia this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Phillies strike out at the 26th-highest rate while posting the 12th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks sixth in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Philadelphia has the fourth-lowest FIP, while Milwaukee has the third-lowest since Aug. 1.
Phillies at Brewers pick, best bet
Walker scares me but he’s been good at limiting runs and the long ball. Misiorowski gets me very excited, but the range of outcomes is wide due to the lack of control. That said, his stuff is so, so good and both bullpens have been pitching well.
