I’ll be writing picks and predictions for all of these games, and while I’m indeed simply stepping in today for the venerable Zach Thompson, I’ll, per usual, keep his lovely intro about the nature of a home run bet, before you go and sprinkle on one:
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props—all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Sunday:
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Eugenio Suarez to hit a home run (+350)
Seattle’s new third baseman Eugenio Suárez is our top long-shot home run play. He’ll face Tampa Bay’s hard-throwing Shane Baz, a right-hander who has been particularly homer-prone. In 2025 Baz has yielded 27 home runs (18 of them at Tropicana Field). Suárez, a powerful right-handed hitter, has unleashed a ton of homers off RHP this year – an astounding 31 of his 42 roundtrippers have come against righties. In other words, he matches up exceptionally well: Baz has surrendered 11 of those home runs at home against righties alone, and Suárez’s own Splits Stats (.574 slugging, .314 ISO off righties) are career-best levels.
Suárez’s extreme fly-ball power can still carry, especially since he hit six homers in August after a slow start. DraftKings currently offers +350 on Suárez in the Anytime HR market. Excellent value given these analytics. In sum, Baz’s struggles and Suárez’s reverse splits suggest he could break out, and the plus-money odds make this a tempting bet.
Juan Soto to hit a home run (+380)
New York Mets star Juan Soto is red-hot entering Monday, making his +380 DK line worth a look. Soto crushed 10 home runs in August (including 3 in his final 3 games), and his recent power surge is peaking at the right time. He draws an inviting matchup against 41-year-old Charlie Morton of Detroit, who has been hittable. Notably, Soto has dominated Morton in their limited history: in 22 career plate appearances he’s already hit three home runs off the veteran righty and owns a 1.214 slugging percentage against him.
With Soto’s lineup protection (Pete Alonso bats behind him) and Morton’s recent uneven form, a first-inning or early inning shot is plausible. DraftKings lists Soto at +380 in the Anytime HR market, a price that underestimates his combination of hot hand and historical dominance over Morton. In short, Soto’s torrid August and head-to-head success argue he’s very likely to go deep, and +380 is a solid value on a career .562 slugger off righties.
Christian Yelich to hit a home run (+500)
I also like Christian Yelich at long odds (+500) in Milwaukee’s game. Yelich has quieted down a bit this year but still tallied 27 homers in 2025, yet DraftKings oddly prices his anytime-HR line at +500. This is value-land for a .300+ hitter with his pedigree. Yelich faces Taijuan Walker of Philadelphia, and history is on Yelich’s side. In his career Yelich is 5-for-10 with a home run against Walker.
Moreover, Yelich has rediscovered his stroke in August (.323 AVG with seven home runs last month). Walker didn’t allow any homers in August, but he has a tendency to cough up long balls in bunches, and reports note he has given them up in spurts. All signs point to Yelich having the firepower to punish one mistake. At +500 to go deep, the return far outweighs the risk compared to betting on a player with his track record and current form.
