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How does the Alexander Isak transfer impact Liverpool’s Premier League odds?

How does the Alexander Isak transfer impact Liverpool’s Premier League odds?

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By: Griffin Wong

After weeks of speculation, the Alexander Isak saga has finally reached its conclusion. Last night, Liverpool agreed to purchase the Swedish striker from fellow Premier League outfit Newcastle United for a record transfer fee of 125 million pounds, the most expensive transfer that an English side has ever made.

The Reds are off to a flying start in the Premier League already, being the only team to win all three of their matches, and now the strong have gotten stronger. Arne Slot’s men had already had an impressive transfer window, bringing in Florian Wirtz and Jeremie Frimpong from Bayer Leverkusen, both for then-record fees. Isak, who finished second in last season’s Golden Boot race behind only Mohamed Salah, has been the prized name ever since he first expressed his desire to leave the Magpies a few weeks ago.

At times last season, Isak looked downright unstoppable, finding the back of the net at least once on 26 of his 48 appearances for club and country, including four in the home stretch as Newcastle went on a late charge up the table to secure a Champions League place this season. He also netted what would ultimately prove to be the winner in the Magpies’ 2-1 win over Liverpool in the EFL Cup final, the club’s first major trophy since 1955.

The Reds had been looking for a new man up front after Luis Díaz left for Bayern Münich and Diogo Jota tragically passed away. So far, new signing Hugo Ekitike has started up front and been brilliant, netting twice and assisting once, but Isak is an upgrade over even the 23-year-old Frenchman. As brilliant as Ekitike was last season for Eintracht Frankfurt, Isak was a more clinical finisher against stronger competition and was a slightly better playmaker. Ekitike’s strong start to the 2025-26 season has been better than Isak’s 2024-25 campaign, but the sample size is small.

Both strikers’ playing time will likely see somewhat of a dip now that they have to share the attack. Slot has only started in a 4-4-2 once, in an EFL Cup game against Brighton last season in which Curtis Jones started alongside Dominik Szoboszlai, but now that his roster has more players ideally suited to that system, it’s possible that he’ll use it more often. Regardless, Isak’s move should allow both him and Ekitike to stay fresh, especially in a World Cup year. Ekitike, thanks to his aerial win rate, is more dangerous in set pieces, while Isak is a clinical penalty-taker.

Unsurprisingly, the transfer, combined with the Reds’ hot start to the season, has made Liverpool a solid favorite in the Premier League title race. It opened in July with +210 odds, but after three weeks and a win over the Arsenal, the Reds have +140 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, with a little bit of a gap to the Gunners at +185. Outside the top two, only Manchester City (+650) and Chelsea (+750) have better than 35-to-1 odds. Newcastle’s odds have dropped to +10000.

The move hasn’t affected the Reds’ Champions League odds, though. Barcelona still has +600 odds to win that competition, with Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain tied with +650 odds. The Magpies’ odds also haven’t taken a dip, as Isak hadn’t been partaking in any matches while the transfer saga was being resolved. The Reds will open their Champions League campaign on September 17 at home against Atlético Madrid, while Newcastle will host the Blaugrana the following day.

Because the Magpies faced Liverpool in Matchweek 2, Isak will have to wait a while to play his former team. He’s not scheduled to face Newcastle until January 31, when the teams will clash at Anfield in Matchweek 24. Barring a clash in the EFL Cup, FA Cup, or Champions League, it won’t be until next season that he’ll play his first match as a visitor to St. James’ Park.

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