This is the second contest of a three-game series in Boston between the Red Sox and visiting Cleveland Guardians.
Slade Cecconi is scheduled to pitch for Cleveland, while Garrett Crochet is slated to start for Boston.
Guardians at Red Sox prediction, preview
Slade Cecconi averages 94.2 mph on the fastball and has a 4.41 ERA and 4.90 FIP through 102 innings this season. The strikeout rate is only 19.3%, but the walk rate is a solid 6%. His biggest bugaboos are the long ball and hard contact. Cecconi has served up 20 home runs, and the Statcast numbers are pretty terrible: an average exit velocity of 92 mph, a barrel rate of 12.6%, and a hard-hit rate of 49.1%.
Twelve of the 20 home runs have come at home. Interestingly, Cecconi has been better against lefties—his K-BB% is 15.9% compared to 10.8% against righties. However, the home run rate tells a different story: 1.97 HR/9 vs. 1.57 HR/9. He’s also been much better on the road, where his K-BB% is 7.8% higher and his FIP is 1.52 lower.
In 18 starts, Cecconi has allowed more than three earned runs just four times. He’s gone at least six innings in 10 of those starts. This will be his first time facing Boston this season.arned runs four times. He’s gone at least six innings 10 times. This will be the first time facing Boston this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Red Sox have the fifth-highest strikeout rate and the eighth-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 10th in MLB.
Garrett Crochet has been absolute chef’s kiss this season. His ERA is 2.40, and his FIP is 2.63. He averages 96.5 mph on the fastball, has a swinging strike rate of 13.4%, a chase rate of 31.7%, and a strikeout rate of 31.1%. The walk rate is only 6.1%, and he limits hard contact extremely well: average exit velocity of 87.4 mph, barrel rate of 7.2%, and hard-hit rate of 37.2%. He’s allowed just 16 home runs in 172.1 innings.
Thirteen of those 16 home runs have come against lefties. Much of that is due to the fact that he rarely faces them—managers know better. He has pitched only 30.1 innings against lefties this season. Crochet has been slightly better on the road, where his K-BB% is 3.4% higher and his FIP is 0.85 lower.
In 27 starts, Crochet has allowed more than three earned runs just four times. He’s gone at least six innings in 20 of those starts. This will be his first time facing Cleveland this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Guardians strike out at the 11th-highest rate while posting the 28th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 29th in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Cleveland has the second-lowest FIP, while Boston ranks ninth-lowest since August 1.
Guardians at Red Sox pick, best bet
Crochet is one of the best pitchers in MLB. He’s at home and faces a Guardians team that hasn’t been good against left-handed pitching. Cecconi has pitched better on the road, but he gives up a ton of hard contact, and I think the Red Sox offense gets to him. Both bullpens have been good.
