Subbing in once more for today to start the week, this time, again, for some NRFI (No Run First Inning) bets today for Bryan Armetta. For a dang-near barren Monday slate, here are my two favorite NRFI bets below.
Ahead of Saturday’s MLB action, here are two NRFI bets worth placing on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Reds vs. Blue Jays NRFI (-135)
In Toronto’s game at Cincinnati, I lean NRFI. The Reds will send Hunter Greene to the mound, and he has been exceptionally stingy in the first inning. Even after missing time with injury, Greene delivered 11 scoreless first innings in his 14 starts so far, including six of seven at home. That’s elite. He has a 30.8% K-rate and generates tons of swings-and-misses, so we expect him to hold Toronto off early. On the other side, Toronto’s starter Chris Bassitt has had a decent bounce-back season (3.67 ERA in August), but even he has allowed first-inning baserunners sporadically. Overall, both aces (especially Greene) excel at getting quick outs, and neither lineup is known for early-inning fireworks in these matchups. DraftKings shows NRFI around -135, reflecting moderate confidence. Notably, some previews for this game predict a high-scoring affair for the full game, but that view targets nine innings rather than inning one. We think Greene’s first-inning dominance (11 of 14 scoreless) and Bassitt’s solid command make it very likely that the Reds and Blue Jays both fail to score in Round 1.
Cubs vs. Braves YRFI (-105)
My second first-inning pick is the opposite. I want a juicy ol’ YRFI in the Braves–Cubs game. Atlanta will start Spencer Strider, who has been uncharacteristically wild and hittable lately. In August alone Strider allowed 21 earned runs in just 18.2 innings (nine starts). Hardly the sharp ace he’s been in past years. Strider’s recent struggles and high hit-rate suggest Atlanta is vulnerable to early offense. Meanwhile, the Cubs will counter with Colin Rea, who is solid but not flawless. Rea has already given up a first-inning run in seven games this season. Chicago has dangerous hitters who can capitalize on any lapse. Given Strider’s August woes and Rea’s history of yielding early runs, it’s quite plausible at least one run scores in the first. DK’s odds (~–105 for Over 0.5 runs, i.e. Yes) are essentially even, but the matchup and recent trends favor a scoring first inning.
