The College Football season is off to the races with plenty of action taking place across the Week 1 slate. To put a bow on the opening week, the North Carolina Tar Heels will host the TCU Horned Frogs in a standalone Monday night matchup. Plenty of attention will be paid to Chapel Hill as Bill Belichick makes his collegiate debut.
TCU enters as 3.5-point road favorites and -170 favorites on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. North Carolina holds +142 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at O/U 55.5 points.
While you can check out a full game preview on DK Network here as well, this article will lay out the top prop bets for the Week 1 season-opener.
Best North Carolina vs. TCU Prop Bets
Gio Lopez to record 250+ Passing Yards (+166)
He likely won’t be confused for Tom Brady, but Belichick looks to have found himself a quarterback. Gio Lopez spent the first two seasons of his career at the University of South Alabama before transferring. He was the primary starter last season, completing 66% of his passes for 2,559 yards, 18 touchdowns, and five interceptions.
There is plenty of intrigue and uncertainty about what the Belichick offense will look like at the collegiate level. It is tough to have any sort of parallels between his NFL game plans and expectations for UNC, but Belichick has proven that if he believes you are good enough, he is going to use you. Lopez has been given the nickname “Magic” for some of the throws that he has been pulling off in practice, and looks to have earned the trust of the wide receiver room.
While it is a leap in competition from his time in the Sun Belt, Lopez averaged 232.6 passing yards per game last year and threw for 250+ yards in five of his 11 games. TCU has not been known for its defense and lost nine of the 20 players to suit up for 200+ snaps from last season. This is a matchup where points should be common, and I am backing the over of O/U 55.5 points. I’d expect Lopez to be primarily responsible for marching the team up and down the field and proving he can do it at the improved competition level. You can bet Lopez to throw for 220+ yards at -115 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook if this line is a tad too high for you, but getting +166 odds feels like great value for what could shape up into a full-scale shootout.
Gio Lopez to record an Anytime TD (-110)
While he is plenty capable with his arm, Lopez is going to utilize his legs. Last season, he totaled 463 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. He reached pay dirt with his legs in six of the 11 games, including recording two rushing touchdowns against Louisiana. Lopez also added two rushing touchdowns on just 18 carries during the 2023 season.
Having a quarterback with the legs to turn the corner is a huge advantage around the goal line. He is also not afraid to take on a defender and take a hit. Standing exactly 6-feet tall and weighing over 200 pounds, he is well built with strong legs. North Carolina should lean on this ability around the red zone and allow him to have a chance at a rushing touchdown.
This is a strong baseline package around the goal line that Belichick has leaned on throughout his coaching career, and Lopez has far more athletic pop than many of the quarterbacks he has utilized. Lopez enters with -110 odds of an anytime touchdown, which is the fourth-shortest odds in this matchup. Whether it is on an option play or a simple QB sneak, I’m expecting him to make the most of his UNC debut with a touchdown on the ground.
Eric McAlister to record 80+ Receiving Yards (+102)
On the other side of the matchup, there should be plenty of optimism surrounding the TCU offensive attack. The Horned Frogs finished last season with a 9-4 record, ranking 25th in the country in scoring at 33.5 points per game and seventh in passing yards per game. Josh Hoover will return after throwing for 3,949 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions last season. He holds -115 odds of throwing for 290+ passing yards in this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Eric McAlister is also back for the Horned Frogs after recording 39 receptions for 762 yards and five touchdowns last season. This comes after he spent the first two seasons of his career at Boise State. McAlister tallied 58 receptions for 1,132 and nine touchdowns while playing for the Broncos. He should see his role grow this year with last year’s leading receiver, Jack Bech, now in the NFL.
Even with Bech dominating the targets last year, McAlister tallied 80+ receiving yards five times. He was largely used as the big-play threat, but had three or more receptions in 8-of-13 games. Hoover is willing to sling it and will give his wide receivers a chance, too. I’d expect McAlister to see his level of opportunity increase and play a key role. He should get off to a strong start to the season, and recording 80+ receiving yards in the season opener does just that.
