This is the opener of a three-game series in St. Louis between the Cardinals and visiting Athletics.
Luis Morales is scheduled to pitch for the Athletics, while Sonny Gray is slated to start for St. Louis.
Athletics at Cardinals prediction, preview
Luis Morales is 22 years old and has thrown his first 22.2 innings in MLB this season. As with most young pitchers, control has been an issue as he’s sporting an 11.4% walk rate. While the strikeout rate is 25%, the swinging strike rate is only 8.4% and the chase rate is a microscopic 18.2%. The average exit velocity is 90.1 mph, barrel rate is 10.7% and the hard hit rate is 44.6%. That said, he’s averaging 97.2 mph on the fastball and has only allowed only one home run. The ERA is 1.19. The sample size has been very small, though, and the FIP is up at 3.08 as the BABIP is only .200 and the strand rate is way up at 92.2%.
Morales has made five appearances this season, with four of those as a starter. He’s increased the workload in every outing – two, 2.2, five, six and seven innings. This will be his first time facing St. Louis this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Cardinals have the 20th-highest strikeout rate but only the 27th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 25th in MLB.
Sonny Gray used to average 94 mph on the fastball. It’s down to 91.7 mph this season. The ERA is 4.19 through 152.1 innings, but not all is doom and gloom. The FIP is at 3.23 as the BABIP is elevated at .324. The strikeout rate is 26.8% while the walk rate is only 4.5%. He’s allowed 20 home runs. The average exit velocity is 88.4 mph and the hard hit rate is 38.1%. The swinging strike rate is 12% while the chase rate is 32%.
14 of the 20 home runs have come off the bat of righties. Against lefties, the K-BB% is 24.1% while the FIP is 2.39. Those numbers are 20.3% and 4.22 against righties. At home, the K-BB% is 4.4% lower than on the road, but the FIP is almost a half run lower.
In 27 starts, Gray has allowed more than three earned runs eight times. He’s gone at least six innings 14 times. This will be his first time facing the Athletics this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Athletics strike out at the 11th-highest rate while posting the sixth-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks eighth in MLB.
As for the bullpens, the Athletics have the 12th-lowest FIP, while St. Louis has the 11th-lowest since Aug. 1.
Athletics at Cardinals pick, best bet
At some point, Morales is going to feel the pain. I’m not sure it comes in this one, though, as the Cardinals aren’t an offensive juggernaut. Gray is a good pitcher, but there are moments of weakness when he gets blasted. I’m not saying that happens in this one, but I’m not saying that it can’t either.
