After a tremendous opening Saturday to Week 1 of college football, we get a throwback top-10 matchup between Notre Dame and Miami on Sunday night of Labor Day Weekend. It’ll be a true home game for the Hurricanes down at Hard Rock Stadium, but expect the Irish fans to make the trip down to where they won last season’s Orange Bowl — which sent them to the National Championship.
Notre Dame got off to a grinder of a start last season in a Week 1 night game on the road, defeating Texas A&M by a score of 23-13. I’m expecting to see something similar in this situation. This is a high-level game to start off the season for both teams, not to mention competing in the summer humidity down in Miami. While the Canes made the flashy addition of Carson Beck at quarterback, don’t expect him to produce at the level that Cam Ward did. Don’t be surprised if both defenses are well ahead of the offenses, which actually seems to be a trend so far in many of these highly ranked games. Looking at other top games, top-25 matchups this season are 3-0 to the under. That includes a 14-7 final in Texas vs. Ohio State, and a 17-10 final in LSU vs. Clemson.
Beck will be playing his first game since tearing his UCL in the SEC Championship against Texas. While he’s protected by one of the nation’s top offensive lines, it may take some time to gel with the skill position players. Miami lost its starting running back and top-six pass-catchers off the 2024 roster. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes return eight starters on defense, remaining strong on the defensive line. Maybe more importantly for Miami’s season-long outlook, it got much deeper in the secondary, which was a weakness last season.
On the other side, the Irish will start freshman quarterback CJ Carr. While Carr is projected to develop into a star, expect there to be some growing pains, particularly with his first start coming on the road against a good defense — we all watched Arch Manning fall short of expectations on Saturday.
ND boasts a strong offensive line, per usual, and returns its top-two rushers in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Expect the Irish to have a focus on pounding the rock early and often. While Notre Dame should chew up some clock on offense, I expect it to be able to get stops on defense. Seven starters return to a defense that helped the Irish to the National Championship Game last season, and they remain deep at all levels.
Simply put, the passing game could be lacking in this one. If both teams play to their strengths, we’ll see plenty of the ground game, and some aggressive defense. I’m in complete agreement with the move to the under, which opened 54.5 and touched as low at 49.5. I bet some under at 54.5 earlier in the summer, but at current numbers, I’m looking to the first half.
Again, I expect this to be played like the other top-10 games we saw this weekend. Defense will lead the charge, along with strong running games and rusty quarterback play. I’ll take the first half to yield 24 or fewer points on Sunday night in Miami.
CFB Pick: 1H UNDER 24.5 (-115) 2-units
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