The Sparks are hosting Mystics on Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Los Angeles is favored by nine points and this game carries a total of 169 points.
Below, I break down the matchup between the Sparks vs. Mystics and give a pick for the game.
Sparks vs. Mystics preview, prediction
The Sparks and Mystics are very different teams. Los Angeles is an offensive minded club that prefers to play fast, while Washington is a slow paced team that focuses on defense. The Sparks and Mystic have faced each other three times this season and Los Angeles leads this season series 2-1. Washington did win the most recent matchup between these clubs by nine points exactly two weeks ago, but this the Mystics haven’t won since.
Washington has lost six in a row and the club is playing it’s second game in two nights Sunday, after an embarrassing 37-point loss to the Valkyries on Saturday. This defeat eliminated the Mystics from playoff contention and since the All-Star break, Washington is 5-13 and ranks third-to-last in net rating.
On the other side of this matchup, the Sparks are still alive for a playoff spot with less than two weeks remaining in the regular season, sitting 2.5 games behind Golden State for the No.8 seed. Los Angeles has dropped back-to-back games at home, but the Sparks still hold a winning record of 9-6 since the All-Star break and rank ninth in net rating over this time. Furthermore, Los Angeles is the more rested team than the Mystics, as the Sparks haven’t played since Friday.
That being said, Rickea Jackson (leg) is questionable for the Sparks, while the Mystics have a clean injury report for Sunday. The forward ranks third for Los Angeles in scoring with a career-high 14.7 PPG and the Sparks are just 1-4 with Jackson inactive this season. If she sits, Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby’s already large roles will increase even further.
Sparks vs. Mystics pick, best bet
While Jackson being questionable is a concern for the Sparks, Los Angeles without her is still a better team than the struggling Mystics. Plus, the Sparks have a clear advantage in rest with Washington on the second leg of a back-to-back and Los Angeles is still fighting to make the playoffs, whereas the Mystics have nothing to play for after yesterday’s blowout loss to the Valkyries.
While the Sparks should notch a win, this nine-point spread is aggressive, especially with Los Angeles only 15-21-1 ATS this season. Instead of attacking this game on the spread, shifting our focus to the total is wise and backing this game to go over it’s 169-point total is a great wager. The first three matchups of the season between the Sparks and the Mystics all exceeded 169 points and these contests produced an average of 179.7 PPG. This season, Los Angeles is 24-12-1 for the over, which is the best record for the over in the WNBA.
