This is the second contest of a three-game series in Cincinnati between the Reds and visiting St. Louis Cardinals.
Michael McGreevy is scheduled to pitch for St. Louis, while Andrew Abbott is slated to start for Cincinnati.
Cardinals at Reds prediction, preview
Michael McGreevy has a 4.43 ERA through 63 innings this season, but his FIP is significantly lower at 3.66, likely due to his high 63.2% strand rate. The control has been excellent, issuing only nine walks and surrendering just six home runs. However, his strikeout rate sits at a modest 15.4%, and his fastball averages 92.9 mph.
Five of the six home runs McGreevy has allowed have been hit by lefties. His K-BB% is 9.8%, and his FIP against left-handed batters is 4.99. However, against right-handed hitters, McGreevy has posted a 13.8% K-BB% and a much lower FIP of 2.68. His splits show he’s been fairly neutral against both sides.
In his 10 starts this season, McGreevy has allowed more than three earned runs five times and has pitched at least six innings in seven of those starts. This will be his first time facing Cincinnati this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Reds have the fifth-highest strikeout rate but only the 24th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 14th in MLB.
Andrew Abbott is a lefty who averages 92.6 mph on his fastball. His ERA is an impressive 2.62 through 134 innings, though his FIP is higher at 3.62. Abbott’s BABIP is a solid .261, and his strand rate is 80.5%. His strikeout rate is 21.7%, while his walk rate is a low 6.4%. He’s allowed only 15 home runs, and his swinging strike rate is 10.9%, indicating he does a good job missing bats. Abbott has also been effective at limiting hard contact, with an average exit velocity of 87.8 mph and a hard-hit rate of 32.8%.
Of the 15 home runs Abbott has allowed, 13 have been off right-handed batters. He’s been notably worse at home, with his K-BB% being 6.2% lower at Great American Ball Park, a notoriously hitter-friendly park.
In 23 starts this season, Abbott has allowed more than three earned runs just five times and has gone at least six innings in 12 of his outings. He’s faced St. Louis twice this season—first at home in May, where he went four innings, walked four, struck out three, and allowed no earned runs. The second meeting came in late June on the road, where Abbott went seven innings, walked none, struck out three, and allowed one earned run on four hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Cardinals strike out at the 23rd-highest rate while posting the 24th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 14th in MLB.
As for the bullpens, St. Louis has the ninth-lowest FIP, while Cincinnati has the 23rd-lowest since Aug. 1.
Cardinals at Reds pick, best bet
This game being in Great American Small Park is worrisome for sure. That said, both pitchers have done a good job of limiting home runs and not issuing walks.
