This is the second contest of a three-game series in Boston between the Red Sox and visiting Pittsburgh Pirates.
Johan Oviedo is scheduled to pitch for Pittsburgh, while Dustin May is slated to start for Boston.
Pirates at Red Sox prediction, preview
Johan Oviedo is a mountain of a man at 6’6″ and 275 pounds. He’s averaged 95 to 96 mph on the fastball throughout his career, and, like many flamethrowers before him, he rarely knows where the ball is going. His walk rate has been in the 9-12% range for his career. He’s pitched just 10 innings in three starts this season, with a 3.60 ERA and a 3.42 FIP. His strikeout rate is 32.6%, while his walk rate is 11.6%. Oviedo has limited hard contact throughout his career, and he’s continuing to do so this season, albeit in a small sample size. The average exit velocity against him is 86.7 mph, and the hard-hit rate is 30.4%. He has yet to allow a barrel.
n his three starts this season, he’s gone one, five, and four innings, allowing two, one, and one earned run, respectively.
Against right-handed pitching, the Red Sox strike out at the sixth-highest rate while posting the seventh-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks ninth-best in MLB.
Dustin May used to average 99 mph on the fastball, but injuries have brought that number down to 95.6 mph. Despite the high velocity, May has never been a huge strikeout pitcher. His strikeout rate this season is 21.5%, while his swinging strike rate is 8.5%. The chase rate is 23.4%, and it has never been above 27% in his career. His ERA and FIP are both around 4.8. The issues for May are that he doesn’t miss many bats and he gets hit hard when batters make contact. The average exit velocity against him is 90.7 mph, with a barrel rate of 9.3% and a hard-hit rate of 45.2%.
Fourteen of the 20 home runs he’s allowed have come off the bat of lefties. Twelve of those 20 home runs have been served up on the road. The strikeout rate against lefties is 25.2%, but the walk rate is 11.1%. On the road, his K-BB% is only 9.3%, while his strand rate is 61.5%.
In 22 starts this season, May has allowed more than three earned runs eight times. He’s gone at least six innings in 10 of those starts. Since being acquired by Boston, May has made four starts. He’s gone 3.2, six, six, and 4.1 innings, allowing three, zero, two, and five earned runs, respectively. This will be the first time he faces Pittsburgh this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Pirates strike out at the seventh-highest rate while posting the 30th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 30th in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Pittsburgh has the 12th-lowest FIP, while Boston has the 11th-lowest since Aug. 1.
Pirates at Red Sox pick, best bet
The Pirates do not instill much fear as an offense, but May can get lit up by anyone. Oviedo has been a beast, missing bats and limiting hard contact. I’m not sure how many innings he goes, but the Pirates bullpen has been pitching well. I’m feeling saucy.
