College Football made its return to television across the country last week during the Week 0 slate. But a full slate of games will be taking place this week as the season truly begins to hit its stride. One interesting matchup taking place will be between the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and the Arizona Wildcats.
Arizona enters the matchup as 17.5-point favorites and holds -800 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. Hawaii holds +550 odds of winning on the moneyline with the game total set at 52.5.
This article will look at a brief preview for both teams and a pick for the Week 1 matchup.
Hawaii vs. Stanford Preview
Hawaii Preview
The Rainbow Warriors got their season started in Week 0 with a 23-20 victory over Stanford. It was a nightmare start to the game with Stanford getting on the board first and Hawaii fumbling the kickoff return, which resulted in a Stanford touchdown. They scrapped their way back from this to produce a 23-20 victory with a walk-off field goal, cementing the result. One of the driving reasons for belief is the expected emergence of quarterback Micah Alejado this season. He showed some impressive flashes last season after stepping in when Brayden Schager suffered an injury. Across one start and some change, he completed 49 of his 70 pass attempts for 585 yards, six touchdowns, and without throwing an interception. This comes after a high school career at Bishop Gorman in which he threw 125 touchdown passes to just four interceptions. Alejado completed 27 of his 39 pass attempts against Stanford for 210 yards and a touchdown while adding 36 yards with his legs. If he were larger than his 5-foot-10 and 180-pound frame, Alejado would likely be representing a power five school at the quarterback position.
Timmy Chang is in his fifth year as head coach at Hawaii and coming off a 5-7 season, which marked the best winning percentage under his tenure. 53% of the production from the team returned, including 65% of the defense. 11 of the 20 members of the defense to tally 200+ snaps returned, headlined by pass rushers Eljiah Robinson and Jackie Johnson III, linebackers Logan Taylor and Jamih Otis, and nickel back Elijah Palmer. They also added a few key pieces on the defensive side of the ball, and the unit has the framework of being the best Hawaii defense in quite some time.
Arizona Preview
Arizona elected to leave the PAC-12 conference and spent its first season in the Big-12 last year. Despite the expectations that they would make some immediate noise, the Wildcats limped to a 4-8 record and lost seven of their final eight games in ugly fashion. Brett Brennan returns for his second season as head coach. He earned the opportunity following his success at San Jose State, but there was not as clear a pathway to a quick turnaround at Arizona as was hoped or expected. To be fair, the 10-3 record in 2023 under Jedd Fisch was the first time Arizona had finished with a winning record since 2014.
Looking a this year’s roster, 67% of the production from last year is returning. This ranks 15th in the country and includes 71% of Arizona’s offense. After they dropped 61 points against New Mexico in last year’s season-opener, they failed to score more than 27 points the rest of the season and were also limited to just seven total points in three separate games. Quarterback Noah Fifta is back and has thrown for 5,827 yards and 43 touchdowns across his two seasons as the starter. The offensive line was ineffective last year and brought in seven transfers to help solve this. Seth Doege also steps in as the new offensive coordinator after serving the same role at Marshall.
Defensively, Arizona was unable to hold up against the better offenses in college football last year. Against teams ranked 60th or worse in the SP+, they limited opponents to 15.5 points per game and 5.0 yards per play. When facing top-60 offenses, they gave up 39.9 points per game and 7.0 yards per play. 22 different players logged at least 100 staps last year, but only nine of these return. Danny Gonzales steps in as defensive coordinator, and the program brought in some notable transfer additions on this side of the ball. Northwestern’s Chancellor Owns, Alcorn State’s Malachi Bailey, San Jose State’s Michael Dansby, and Montana’s Riley Wilson headline these additions. The reliance on players making the FCS to FBS leap is a bit of a concern, but Brennan addressed the team’s needs on paper and did as well as he could.
Hawaii vs. Arizona Pick
The spread opened at 14 points on DraftKings Sportsbook for this matchup, but increased to 17.5 following the result of Hawaii’s matchup with Stanford. Hawaii narrowly covered the 2.5-point spread in this game, but it was not the clearest path to achieving this and took a walkoff field goal to ultimately be the case. Perhaps the biggest reason for the line movement is a level of concern for the outlook of quarterback Micah Alejado. He was as advertised in the opener from a production standpoint, but suffered an ugly-looking lower leg injury, which caused him to leave the game. The Hawaii QB returned to the matchup shortly after but was a bit limited in his mobility. Alejado still managed to lead the team on a game-winning drive and was one of the biggest bright spots in the game despite this. He has been limited at practice this week, with Luke Weaver taking the majority of the snaps, but the expectation remains for Alejado the be on the field.
But the slate is wiped clean for this week, and there is no sample size of real gameplay from Arizona to base an opinion on this season. This is a Wildcats team that dropped seven of its final eight games last season and kept a good chunk of the same core in place. Hawaii allowed 177 rushing yards to Stanford, which is a concern in this matchup. This number was almost double what they conceded last year on average. But they did look encouraging in their ability to slow down the passing attack and will look to carry this into Week 1. For what it is worth, Hawaii is 2-2 in Week 0 but 0-3 in Week 1 under Timmy Chang.
The injury outlook for Alejado is worth monitoring, but I am bullish on Hawaii this season. It is officially being labeled an ankle injury, and the starting quarterback was quick to push off any concerns of him missing time during his postgame interview. He has some ability as a rusher as well, but Alejado primarily dominates the game with his arm. If he is on the field, have the same expectations for Hawaii’s offense.
I am backing Hawaii to cover the 17.5-point spread and expecting this matchup to come down to the wire. There are more questions surrounding Arizona than this spread indicates, and this is a cushion I am plenty comfortable backing. Arizona should have the edge in producing the outright victory, but the Rainbow Warriors cannot be a team taken lightly on a week-to-week basis. If Arizona does not enter with a clear focus, the pathway to a Hawaii victory will become clear. Ultimately, the 17.5-point spread feels far too significant for my liking. Arizona only covered this margin in two of its four wins last year and had eight outright losses. Count on the Rainbow Warriors picking up some steam in being considered threats and putting forth a battle in this game by keeping it within a three-score margin throughout.
