Helping close down the full day of MLB action, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the late slate. The Dodgers sit atop the NL West with a 77-58 record on the year and are still pushing to earn a postseason bye. It has not been as positive a season for the Diamondbacks. Arizona is posting a 67-69 record on the year and is 10.5 games back from the Dodgers in the division.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Dodgers enter as convincing -232 favorites on the moneyline and hold -115 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Diamondbacks hold +186 odds of getting the outright victory, with the run total set at 8.5.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Saturday’s Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers matchup.
Diamondbacks at Dodgers prediction
Tyler Glasnow is scheduled to make the start for Los Angeles. The former All-Star has made 13 starts so far this season and is posting a 1-2 record with a 3.36 ERA, nine home runs allowed, and 76 strikeouts tallied across his first 61.2 innings pitched. Glasnow was sidelined for over two months due to back and shoulder issues this season. Injuries have been a familiar problem for the Dodgers’ pitching staff collectively and for Glasnow directly. But the 32-year-old has been consistently back in the rotation for the past two months and will be expected to play a key role in their postseason outlook.
Los Angeles has had some great success at the plate and has put up some runs this season. Across the MLB, the Dodgers rank seventh in batting average, fourth in on-base percentage, and second in slugging percentage. They have tallied the ninth-most hits but rank third in total runs and fourth in total bases, while tallying the second-most home runs. Shohei Ohtani headlines the production with a team-high 142 hits, 45 home runs, 85 RBIs, and an MLB-best 123 runs. Freddie Freeman leads the team with a .300 batting average and has tallied 136 hits, 18 home runs, and 75 RBIs. Andy Pages, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández, and Will Smith have each also surpassed 100 hits on the season.
Eduardo Rodriguez will get the start for the Diamondbacks. The 32-year-old has had some struggles this season. Through his first 23 starts, Rodriguez is posting a 5-8 record with a 5.67 ERA, 21 home runs allowed, and 116 strikeouts tallied across his first 119.0 innings pitched. He has made one start against this Dodgers team so far this season and was chased from the matchup after just 2.2 innings pitched, allowing nine hits and eight total runs. This matchup occurred back on May 9, but Rodriguez has not escaped any of his past six starts without allowing at least one earned run and has allowed 5+ in three of the six.
The Diamondbacks have been respectable at the plate this season as well. They rank 11th in batting average, seventh in on-base percentage, and third in slugging percentage. Arizona has tallied the eighth-most hits, ranks fourth in total runs, second in total bases, and has the fifth-most home runs. Geraldo Perdomo leads the team with 143 hits on the season and has added 15 home runs and 87 RBIs. Corbin Carroll leads the team with 27 home runs and an MLB-best 16 triples, along with 67 RBIs to his name. Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have each also tallied over 100 hits.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
The Diamondbacks opened up the series with a 3-0 victory over the Dodgers, in which Los Angeles was limited to just three total hits. Arizona has won three straight games entering this matchup, while the previous loss snapped a four-game win streak for Los Angeles.
While the bats were kept in check in the previous game, I am expecting things to be different in this matchup. Eduardo Rodriguez’s 5.67 ERA is concerning in its own right, but across his past five matchups with the Dodgers, he is 1-3 with a 7.66 ERA. Tyler Glasnow has been effective throughout his career but has struggled against Arizona. In his career against the Diamondbacks, he has a 0-2 record with a 12.27 ERA. Glasnow has not faced Arizona yet this year, but he enters having allowed two or more earned runs in three straight starts.
Both the Diamondbacks and Dodgers rank in the top 10 in the rate of reaching the over this year. They have put up as many as 25 runs collectively when playing each other this season. With both offenses being among the most dangerous at the plate and each pitcher having some struggles in past matchups, look for the run total to soar past 8.5 and for both sides to be ready to bring it offensively tonight. My lean is toward the Diamondbacks covering the 1.5-point run line, but I am backing the total for tonight’s West Coast action.
