We have a rare Week 1 matchup between two teams that each already have a game under their belt. The UNLV Rebels just barely pulled out a win over Idaho State in Week 0, thanks to forcing four turnovers. However, the Rebels won by just seven points as a favorite north of 30 points. The Sam Houston State Bearkats went on the road, and couldn’t keep up with a high-flying Western Kentucky offenses, failing to cover in a 41-24 loss.
This game will be played off campus in Houston, but with the Bearkats acting as the home team. The major reaction in this game has been how poor UNLV looked in its opener. Prior to Week 0, the Rebs were laying 14.5 in this game, and the spread has dipped to single digits. My key takeaway was just how awful UNLV was on defense, giving up 31 points at home to far inferior competition.
The over has taken significant money in this matchup, and while I lean to that being the correct side, I have a stronger lean to isolating Sam Houston’s team total. The Bearkats put up 24 points on the road on Saturday, and will have a chance to potentially find even more success on offense on Friday night against Dan Mullen’s defense.
While it’s tough to be sure of much this early in the season, there’s a chance UNLV is just dreadful on defense. This D just surrendered nearly 400 passing yards and 160 rushing yards as a monster home favorite in the opener. I’m yet to bet the game, but have some interest in backing the Bearkats to eclipse their team total if I do get involved.
CFB Lean: Sam Houston State Team Total OVER 25.5 (-120)
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