Few teams are more all-in than the Mariners. Seattle traded for several standouts during last month’s trade deadline. As a result, the team has possession of the American League’s third and final wildcard spot. At 66-66, the Guardians are a distant four games behind the M’s. However, a weekend series between these two clubs presents a golden opportunity for Cleveland. Which of these playoff hopefuls will come out on top? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between the Mariners and the Guardians.
The Mariners are favorites (-164) over the Guardians, with the over/under set at eight runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Mariners vs. Guardians prediction, preview
These two clubs have been built in a similar fashion, with a heavy focus on starting pitching. For the visiting Mariners, it’ll be George Kirby toeing the slab. Despite dealing with injuries, the right-hander has managed to put up decent numbers. Through 95.2 innings of work, the former All-Star owns a 4.05 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 ratio. In five of his last six starts, Kirby has managed to toss six innings while allowing no more than two runs. The lone outlier? A 4.2 inning, seven run shellacking against the Mets on August 17th.
Overall, it’s been a productive month for Seattle’s star hurler. He’ll hope to continue that success tonight against one of baseball’s worst offenses. The Guardians are averaging just 3.85 runs per game, the American League’s worst mark. Other than Jose Ramirez, no hitter in this lineup has a wRC+ over 110. Since August 1st, Cleveland has scored just 84 runs, baseball’s lowest total.
If the Guards have any shot at a victory, they’ll need a stellar performance on the mound. Logan Allen isn’t an ace, but he’s good enough to prevent a game from getting out of hand. On the year, he’s notched a 4.35 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 100 strikeouts over 128.1 innings pitched. The right-hander’s most recent outing last week vs. Texas was a disaster (5.0 IP, 9 ER). However, he’s allowed three runs or less in 72% of his starts this season.
It’s not as if the Mariners have been unstoppable in recent weeks. This month, Seattle has just two hitters with an OPS above .800, Julio Rodriguez (.927) and Josh Naylor (.823). Superstar slugger Cal Raleigh is batting a paltry .187 during that time, albeit with eight home runs. Perhaps a trip away from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park can ignite this offense. The Mariners are averaging the fourth-most runs per game on the road this season (4.95).
Mariners vs. Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Mariners -1.5 (+108)
It’s difficult to find any edge for the Guardians in this spot. Seattle has the better pitcher in Kirby, as well as a far more dangerous lineup. In addition, the Mariners are much better on offense when on the road. The visitors should deliver a comfortable win on Friday.
