Week 1 of the college football slate gets underway when the Boise State Broncos visit the USF Bulls on Thursday, with the game set to kickoff on national television at 5:30pm ET. Boise State is fresh off a College Football Playoff appearance, and despite the notable loss of Ashton Jeanty, returns a roster that most would consider the best in the Group of Five.
However, the Broncos will be tested right out of the gates. Other than being priced as a 16.5-point underdog in a trip to South Bend, this game at South Florida is considered the toughest on the schedule. The spread is becoming somewhat of a head-scratcher in this one, with USF getting a lot of respect in the home underdog roll.
The number on this game first opened with Boise laying 10 points, and despite roughly 80% of the tickets on the favorite, the number has crashed down to 5.5 on Wednesday evening. While it’s always great to have a good number in pocket, we also don’t know much in Week 1 of the college football season. This is one of those instances where I’m going to fade the market movement, and buy low on the Broncos.
I played Boise State to win the Mountain West earlier in the summer, and while this game won’t play an impact in that market, it easily could for Boise’s chances at the CFP field. The Broncos return seven starters from a solid defense, along with seven more on offense. The running back room takes an obvious step back without Jeanty, but has talent. Maddux Madsen returns two of his top three pass catchers, and is playing behind an elite offensive line. The Broncos return four of five starters from last season to the OL, and roster six players that have starting experience — including two that Phil Steele has ranked as NFL prospects.
After a 2-4 start last season, USF did gain momentum down the stretch. The Bulls won five of their final seven games, including a Bowl victory. They return 16 starters, including Byrum Brown at QB, but going toe to toe with this Boise team is going to prove a tall task. Had this team faced the Broncos last season, I’d imagine it’d be a much larger underdog than this, and USF didn’t exactly thrive as a home dog in 2024. In fact, the Bulls flat out stunk as a home dog — 0-3 SU/ATS. Those losses came by 35 points (+17 vs. Miami), 18 points (+9 vs. Memphis), and 21 points (+4 vs. Navy).
I’ll bank on that trend continuing when a Boise State team, that’s played on big stages, comes to town. I paired the Broncos with Utah on a moneyline parlay, but with the game now under a touchdown, I’d recommend laying 5.5 with the Broncos if you want a straight play on the game.
CFB Pick: Boise State/Utah ML Parlay (+105) 1-unit
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