This is the opener of a three-game series in Washington between the Nationals and visiting Tampa Bay Rays.
Adrian Houser is scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay, while Mitchell Parker is slated to start for Washington.
Rays at Nationals prediction, preview
Adrian Houser is posting a career-low 2.88 ERA in 90.2 innings. Before we crown him, the FIP is up at 3.74, while the strand rate is 79.4%. Now, to his credit, despite posting a strikeout rate of only 16.5%, Houser has only allowed six home runs on the season, and the barrel rate is only 5.7%. When he gets hit, though, he gets hit hard, as the hard-hit rate is 47.7% and the average exit velocity is 90.5 mph.
Five of the six home runs allowed have come off the bat of lefties. The K-BB% is only 5% compared to 12.8% against righties. The FIP is 4.97 vs. 2.74. Houser has been much better on the road. The K-BB% is 6.3% higher, while the FIP is 0.76 lower.
In 15 starts, Houser has allowed more than three earned runs three times, with all of those coming in the last four games. This will be the first time facing Washington this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Nationals strike out at the 25th-highest rate while having the 23rd-best ISO. Their wOBA is 20th-best in MLB.
Mitchell Parker has a 14.5% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate. Gross. The ERA is at 6.01, but the strand rate is only 59.1%, so the FIP is down at 5.01. Still gross. He’s allowed 20 home runs in 134.2 innings. The average exit velocity is 92.3 mph, with a hard-hit rate of 51.2%! Both are the worst marks in MLB. Parker is the only pitcher to allow a hard-hit rate over 50%.
Sixteen of the 20 home runs have come off the bat of righties. Interestingly, though, the FIP is higher against lefties, as the K-BB% is only 1.9%. Parker has been slightly better at home.
In 26 starts, Parker has allowed more than three earned runs 13 times, with five of those in the most recent outings. He’s gone at least six innings 10 times, but five of those were at the beginning of the season. This will be the first time facing Tampa Bay this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Rays strike out at the fifth-highest rate while having the 21st-best ISO. Their wOBA is 24th-best in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Tampa Bay has the eighth-lowest FIP, while Washington has the 28th-lowest since Aug. 1.
Rays at Nationals pick, best bet
The Rays offense is no juggernaut, but Parker gets hit hardest in all of baseball. The Nationals bullpen has also been one of the worst. Junior Caminero has a .262 ISO against left-handed pitching, and I like him to get one against Parker.
