This is the opener of a three-game series in Cincinnati between the Reds and visiting St. Louis Cardinals.
Matthew Liberatore is scheduled to pitch for St. Louis, while Zack Littell is slated to start for Cincinnati.
Cardinals at Reds prediction, preview
Matthew Liberatore is having the best year of his career. He started all 24 games and, in 126.1 innings, the FIP is 3.87, the first time below four. The ERA is at 4.27. While he averages 94 mph on the fastball, the strikeout rate is only 18.2%. The control has been excellent, though, with a 5.9% walk rate and he’s only allowed 14 home runs. That said, he’s not particularly missing bats or limiting hard contact.
Twelve of the 14 home runs have come off the bat of righties. The K-BB% numbers aren’t too far off against both lefties and righties, but the walk rate is 4.3% higher against lefties. Liberatore has been site neutral.
In 24 starts, Liberatore has allowed more than three earned runs six times. He pitched at least six innings 11 times. He faced Cincinnati back in May on the road, going three innings, walking one and striking out two while allowing two earned runs on two hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Reds strike out at the 10th-highest rate while having the 29th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 26th-best in MLB.
Zack Littell is the opposite of Liberatore in more ways than one. Littell is a righty for starters while Liberatore is a lefty. Liberatore has a lower FIP than ERA, but Littell has a lower ERA than FIP — 3.62 vs. 4.73. The strikeout rate is only 16.9% but the walk rate is also low at 4.3%. Littell has a home run problem, though, as he served up 28 in 154 innings. He has only walked 27 batters.
Sixteen of the 28 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. Twenty of the 28 home runs have been served up on the road. Most of the numbers are similar against righties and lefties, outside of the slight home run discrepancy. The home/road splits are another matter. The K-BB% is 17.1% at home vs. 9.6% on the road. The FIP is 5.47 on the road compared to 3.65 at home.
In 26 starts, Littell has allowed more than three earned runs five times. He pitched at least six innings 18 times. This will be the first time facing St. Louis this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Cardinals strike out at the 20th-highest rate while having the 28th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 26th-best in MLB.
As for the bullpens, St. Louis has the ninth-lowest FIP, while Cincinnati has the 23rd-lowest since Aug. 1.
Cardinals at Reds pick, best bet
Neither pitcher does a good job limiting barrels or hard contact. In Great American Ball Park, that’s a scary proposition even though Littell has pitched relatively well at home. The Reds bullpen hasn’t been good, though.
