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Milwaukee Brewers at Toronto Blue Jays prediction, pick for Friday 8/29/25

Milwaukee Brewers at Toronto Blue Jays prediction, pick for Friday 8/29/25

Sports Betting Picks MLB DraftKings Sportsbook Insights

Published:

By: Stan Son

This is the opener of a three-game series in Toronto between the Blue Jays and visiting Milwaukee Brewers.

Freddy Peralta is scheduled to pitch for Milwaukee, while Shane Bieber is slated to start for Toronto.

Brewers at Blue Jays prediction, preview

Freddy Peralta is posting a 2.68 ERA through 147.2 innings. He’s been a little lucky with a .245 BABIP and an 84.8% strand rate, but the FIP is still a respectable 3.69. As always, the walk rate is high at 9.4%, but the strikeout rate is 26.3%, and he’s only allowed 16 home runs. The average exit velocity is 87.7 mph, while the hard-hit rate is 32.6%. The swinging strike rate is 12.6%.

Eleven of the 16 home runs have been served up on the road. The K-BB% is 13.3% compared to 20.3% at home. Peralta has been slightly better against righties, as the K-BB% is 20.1% vs. 14.2%, but the FIPs are 3.69 and 3.68.

In 27 starts, Peralta has allowed more than three earned runs only three times. He’s gone at least six innings 11 times. He has not allowed an earned run in each of the last three outings. This will be the first time facing Toronto this season.

Against right-handed pitching, the Blue Jays strike out at the 30th-highest rate while having the 12th-best ISO. Their wOBA is fifth-best in MLB.

Shane Bieber made his season debut after recovering from injury and was marvelous. He went six innings, did not walk a batter, and struck out nine while allowing only one earned run on two hits against the Miami Marlins. The fastball averaged 92.5 mph, the swinging strike rate was 17.2% and the chase rate was 42.3%. He did get hit hard, though, with an average exit velocity of 96.6 mph, a barrel rate of 27.3%, and a hard-hit rate of 63.6%. It was one start, though, spanning six innings.

Against right-handed pitching, the Brewers strike out at the 24th-highest rate while having the 18th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 11th-best in MLB.

As for the bullpens, Milwaukee has the third-lowest FIP, while Toronto has the 22nd-lowest since Aug. 1.

Brewers at Blue Jays pick, best bet

I believe in both pitchers!

Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs (-105)

Stan Son
Stan joined DraftKings in December of 2020. It was a glorious time, except for that whole COVID thing, when we got Madden streams and boisterous bat flips from the KBO. I was brought on board to bring some West Coast flavor. I especially love hoops, and most of my content is in that arena. When I walk along the beach, strumming my guitar, the beat that I hear is not one of crashing waves. No, it is the beat of the ball bouncing off the hardwood with highs provided by the squeaks of the sneakers. Ball is life.
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