I’m high on this Buffalo Bulls team this season, as I explained in my article I wrote about their win total. That also translates to Week 1, before the market catches up to Buffalo. I have a lot of respect for Minnesota’s defense, but if you look at the market here, expectations are close to zero for the Bulls on offense.
The Golden Gophers are giving 17.5 here, in a game with a total that’s dipped to 43.5. Minnesota returns six starters on defense, but loses its defensive coordinator and will start a new scheme. Given all the unknowns, I feel it’s unreasonable to expect Buffalo to be held so in-check. Not to mention, Buffalo can play some defense of its own — returning nine starters to one of the best defenses in the MAC.
While playing in a Big Ten road atmosphere may be tough, the experienced Buffalo defense will be going up against a quarterback making his first start — redshirt freshman, Drake Lindsay. The Gophers do have a strong running back room, and should look to control the game on the ground, which also plays well to taking points in the game.
That said, Phil Steele’s position unit rankings actually give the edge to Buffalo’s offensive line over Minnesota — Bulls rank No. 56 nationally, while the Gophers are No. 60. Buffalo also returns 1,000-yard rusher Al-Jay Henderson, so both running games should be the strength of the offense. Pete Lembo has done a spectacular job since coming to Buffalo, and helped the Bulls spring two outright upsets as a double digit underdog last season (+13 at No. 23 Northern Illinois and +10 vs. Toledo).
Buffalo has all the tools to make this a game, and could even be live to have a chance to steal it outright. I’ll gladly take the points.
CFB Pick: Buffalo +17.5 (-105) 1.5-units
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