One of UEFA’s goals in switching from a 32-team, eight-group format to a 36-team League Phase was to institute even more drama and chaos than European football’s top competition usually draws. With the 2025-26 Champions League right around the corner, the upcoming season promises some wild results.
The final teams confirmed their places in the League Phase earlier this week in the qualifying playoffs, with Kairat Almaty, Bodø/Glimt, Royal Union Saint-Gilloise, and Pafos set to participate in the Champions League for the first time.
After this afternoon’s draw, all 36 teams know the eight teams that they will play in the League Phase. They had been seeded into four pots of nine, with each team playing one team from each pot both home and away. Liverpool and FC Barcelona are co-favorites at +600 on DraftKings Sportsbook, with defending champions Paris Saint-Germain at +650. Kairat Almaty (+100000) is the biggest long-shot.
With every team’s schedule complete, let’s take a look at some winners and losers.
Winner: Arsenal
Of the six Premier League teams in the competition, Arsenal’s draw seems the most favorable, although it’s hard to determine for sure until the week-by-week schedule is set.
Placed in Pot 2 despite finishing second in the Premier League and losing in the semifinals of last season’s competition, the Gunners’ Pot 1 road game is against Inter Milan. While the Nerazzurri made the Champions League final in 2024-25, they were trounced 5-0 by PSG and have an aging roster. Bayern Münich at home isn’t an easy draw, especially now that the Bavarian giants have added Luis Díaz and Jonathan Tah, but no team in Pot 1 is easy and Bayern will be without Jamal Musiala, who broke his leg in the Club World Cup. Arsenal also got Club Brugge from Pot 2, which is just the third-lowest ranked team in the pot but has a combined market value far less than either Juventus or Villarreal.
Every team in Pots 1 and 2 should be easily favored against any of the opponents in Pots 3 and 4, but Arsenal got a good draw there, too. The Gunners avoided Spurs and Napoli, probably the two most dangerous teams in Pot 3, and will instead host Greek champions Olympiacos and travel away to Slavia Prague. They also will host Kairat Almaty, and while Athletic Club is one of the tougher road matches available from Pot 4, it’s no more likely to trip them up than an away date at Newcastle or Victor Osimhen’s Galatasaray. AS Monaco also has a higher squad market value than the Bilbao-based side.
Loser: Any team that has to face Kairat Almaty away
Kairat is the easternmost club ever to qualify for the Champions League, as its home stadium sits less than 200 miles from the Chinese border more than 4,000 miles from Madrid. As the least valuable squad in the competition and the most geographically isolated, Kairat was always going to have a challenge with the travel, but its home opponents will face an unfamiliar challenge: Southeastern Kazakhstan’s unrelenting climate.
The daily mean temperatures in Almaty can drop below zero degrees Celcius, and with five of the eight League Phase games taking place after the start of November, it’s possible that three of Real Madrid, Club Brugge, Olympiacos, and Pafos will have to brave subzero temperatures in addition to a long flight. The change in climate could especially be challenging for Pafos, given that the temperature almost never drops below 10 degrees Celcius in the Cypriot city. Almaty Central Stadium has no roof, though one stand is covered.
Winner: Fans of revenge
Given the pedigree of the teams in Pot 1 and the volatile nature of the summer transfer window, there were always going to be some potentially spicy homecomings. There were a few potential revenge stories avoided: Arsenal and Viktor Gyökeres didn’t draw Sporting, and Liverpool drew neither Bayer Leverkusen nor Newcastle, the latter of which would have huge implications if Alexander Isak secures his much-desired move to England’s west coast.
Still, there are plenty of compelling storylines on the docket. Long-time Reds defender Trent Alexander-Arnold was booed by the Anfield faithful after his decision to leave the club for Real Madrid, and now Los Blancos will travel to face Liverpool at the venue in Europe’s most prestigious competition. It’s possible that the talented wing-back won’t play — he’s totaled just 71 minutes in a pair of La Liga appearances as he acquaints himself with his new club — but if he does, it’ll make for a tense affair. PSG’s game in Barcelona also has its fair share of storylines: Blaugrana faithful booed Ousmane Dembélé incessantly during last season’s league phase and will surely do so again, especially if he nabs the Ballon d’Or over Barça’s Lamine Yamal. Plus, Manchester City will welcome back club legend Kevin de Bruyne as Napoli visits the Etihad.
Loser: Manchester City
I’d mentioned in the Gunners’ section that Newcastle, Galatasaray, and Monaco were the teams to avoid in Pot 4. City managed to draw two of them, including an away date at Monaco, where the French side posted a 12-3-2 record in 17 Ligue 1 games last season and produced better chances than PSG despite losing both matches. Despite all of the Sky Blues’ defensive talent, they’ll be tested at the Etihad by a Galatasaray attack that might be better than any outside of Europe’s top five leagues, with Osimhen and new arrival Leroy Sané.
City also got unlucky with its Pot 3 draw. Since the Sky Blues couldn’t draw Spurs, the team to avoid was the Italian champion Napoli, which they drew. De Bruyne will surely be fired up to beat his old team in what will be an emotional affair, and former Manchester United man Scott McTominay has proven to be one of Serie A’s best players over the last two seasons. The Sky Blues also have to travel into the Arctic Circle to take on Bodø/Glimt away, which could prove a dark and frigid test if the game takes place in December or January.
City’s road does get a little bit easier in Pots 1 and 2. Real Madrid away is a huge challenge, but so is any team in the pot, and Borussia Dortmund at home is one of the friendlier draws available to the Sky Blues. From Pot 2, Villarreal is a difficult test but one that City should be able to handle, while Bayer Leverkusen is a significantly less daunting task now that Florian Wirtz is at Liverpool and Xabi Alonso at Real Madrid. Still, none of those four games are easy, and the Sky Blues’ difficult Pot 3 and 4 draws makes them a loser in the aggregate.
