With the Pittsburgh Pirates slated to miss the postseason for the 10th straight season, their focus turns to the development of youngster Bubba Chandler, the game’s top pitching prospect. Chandler could see some action tonight in the third game of a four-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals.
First, though, the Pirates will roll out Carmen Mlodzinski, who was demoted from his starting role at the beginning of June but has made one spot start since, with Chandler possibly slated to follow out of the bullpen. St. Louis, meanwhile, will start Sonny Gray. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals prediction, preview
Both of these teams have been pretty mediocre since the All-Star break, so it’s not too much of a surprise that they’ve split the two games so far. Monday’s contest saw Pittsburgh southpaw Andrew Heaney pitch so poorly — conceding five runs and getting just two outs — that the team designated him for assignment after the game, and Alec Burleson hit a walk-off solo shot off of Dennis Santana to seal the deal. Last night’s contest was a pretty straightforward win for the Pirates, who raced out to an 8-0 lead after the first three innings and managed to hold on. The first two games of the series underscored the Cardinals’ pitching woes, as they’ve had the fifth-worst staff ERA (and lowest OPS) since the All-Star break.
In theory, Gray should be just the man to alleviate St. Louis’ issues, but the former Cy Young Award runner-up has been poor since the showcase, with a 6.75 ERA in 37.1 innings. While most of that damage came in the first two starts after the break, he’s allowed nine total runs across his last 10 innings, though he picked up a win against the Tampa Bay Rays last Thursday. Advanced stats are kind to the 35-year-old, who leads the league in strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his 3.78 expected ERA and 3.28 FIP both indicate that he’s been far better than the raw numbers suggest. His biggest weakness is conceding barrels, which shouldn’t be a massive concern against any Pittsburgh player other than Oneil Cruz.
For the Pirates, Mlodzinski will likely be a low-usage opener, given that he hasn’t thrown more than four innings since May 11. He was atrocious in his nine starts in the rotation, pitching to a 5.67 ERA across 39.2 innings, but after an elite three-month stint with Triple-A Indianapolis, he has produced an elite 2.18 ERA in 37.1 innings out of the bullpen plus a four-inning, one-hit scoreless start. Plus, if he’s indeed followed up by Chandler — who gave up just two hits in four scoreless innings and earned the save in his MLB debut last Friday against the Colorado Rockies — that’ll give Pittsburgh back-to-back flamethrowers. Starting the game with two long relievers should save a bullpen that has posted a 5.82 ERA since dealing David Bednar at the trade deadline.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals pick, best bet
Best Bet: St. Louis Cardinals U2.5 Walks (+120)
Since the All-Star break, St. Louis has only walked 95 times, the second-fewest of any team. Mlodzinski has posted an 86th-percentile walk rate this season, and Chandler exhibited elite control during his first MLB appearance, though he has been relatively wild at the Triple-A level this season.
Strong Lean: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (+143)
Perhaps I’m overreacting to the poor form that Gray has exhibited as of late and to recent good games from Mlodzinski and Chandler, but the chasm between these two teams isn’t huge enough, even accounting for the Pirates’ awful road record, that Pittsburgh should be +143 on the Moneyline. The Cardinals just aren’t that good.
