This is the finale of a four-game series in St. Louis between the Cardinals and visiting Pittsburgh Pirates.
Braxton Ashcraft is scheduled to pitch for Pittsburgh, while Miles Mikolas is slated to start for St. Louis.
Pirates at Cardinals prediction, preview
Braxton Ashcraft has appeared in 20 games this season, totaling 46.2 innings, but only four of those outings were as a starter. Still, the season-long numbers are impressive. The fastball is averaging 96.8 mph, the swinging strike rate is 11.4% and the chase rate is 30.4%. The strikeout rate is 22.3%, the 2.7 ERA is supported by the 2.52 FIP and, most impressively, he’s only allowed one home run. The ground ball rate is 51.9%, average exit velocity is 87.3 mph, barrel rate is a minuscule 3.7% and the hard hit rate is 35.6%.
The 12.2% walk rate against lefties makes the K-BB% only 11%, compared to 18% against righties. The same phenomenom occurs at home vs. the road. The FIP of 2.86 is the same against lefties and at home.
Ashcraft has started in his last three contests, pitching 3.1, five and five innings. This will be his first time facing St. Louis this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Cardinals strike out at the 21st-highest rate while having the 28th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 25th-best in MLB.
Miles Mikolas is having a rough season. The 5.17 ERA is supported by the 5.01 FIP. The strikeout rate is only 14.9% while he’s served up 23 home runs in 125.1 innings. The 1.65 HR/9 is a career-high by a wide margin. The barrel rate is 11.9% while the hard hit rate is 42.1%.
15 of the 23 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. 17 of the 23 home runs have been served up on the road.
In 25 starts, Mikolas has allowed more than three earned runs eight times. He’s gone at least six innings eight times. He faced Pittsburgh way back in early May, going five innings, walking three and striking out one while allowing three earned runs on four hits. That game was in St. Louis.
Against right-handed pitching, the Pirates strike out at the seventh-highest rate while having the 30th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 29th-best in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Pittsburgh has the 11th-lowest FIP, while St. Louis has the ninth-lowest since August 1.
Pirates at Cardinals pick, best bet
Ashcraft does an excellent job of limiting hard contact and the Cardinals aren’t a juggernaut of an offense. In addition, the Pirates’ bullpen has been pretty good, so I don’t see St. Louis scoring many runs, if at all. The Cardinals’ bullpen has been pitching well but Mikolas is having a rough season. The Pirates aren’t a great offense, but I think they get a few across against Mikolas.
