I’ve already got a picks and prediction write-up for the Brewers vs. Diamondbacks game today, and have one on the way for Giants vs. Cubs. On the non-sides markets, we’ve still got a full slate of action. Based on my preliminary research, here are my three favorite baseball bets for tonight’s slate, separate from my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Shohei Ohtani o5.5 total strikeouts (-130) vs. Reds
I’m attacking this number because the skills and opponent intersect perfectly. Ohtani owns a 25.9% K-BB% with elite run estimators, including a 2.59 xERA and 2.73 xFIP, a true ace profile. His contact suppression is sharp as well, with a .337 xSLG and 32.9% hard-hit rate against, which protects pitch counts. That matters because strikeouts require runway, not just whiffs. His 2025 game log shows 35 strikeouts in 27⅓ innings while building workload back into four-plus inning turns. That’s 11.5 K/9 in raw terms, which places six strikeouts well within standard volume. Cincinnati supplies the accelerant with post-break offensive erosion and bottom-tier underlying quality.
Since the All-Star break, the Reds sit 26th in wRC+ versus right-handers and 25th in hard-hit rate, a two-strike invitation. Their approach lengthens counts and feeds Ohtani’s CSW on four-seam ladders and the diving splitter. His splitter earns chases under barrels, while the sweeper plays backdoor early and bury late. Umpire tendencies for called strikes at the knees further supercharge that splitter path. If the Reds counter with early swings, they trade strikeouts for weak contact and quick innings, preserving stamina for later frames. The Dodgers pen insulation frees the manager to press aggressively, letting Ohtani chase punchouts through traffic. Six strikeouts clears on two sequences per trip: elevated heaters to set the eye, splitters underneath to finish.
Corey Seager to hit a home run (+275)
I’m buying peak swing shape against a hittable right-handed rookie and a compromised bullpen. Seager’s bat speed and lift unlock pull-side damage, and his swing lives in the launch-angle sweet spot. He punishes four-seamers without late life and punishes breakers that back up in leverage counts. Jack Kochanowicz has leaked traffic to Texas, allowing 14 runs in 12 innings across two appearances, and his four-seam rides true when behind. That profile gifts Seager ambush opportunities on middle-in velocity and hanger curves after get-me-over mistakes. Seager’s barrel rate and xwOBA tier with the league’s best left-handed sluggers this season, and his rolling hard-hit trend has climbed through August. That surge shows in his recent fly-ball distance and in-air damage, the inputs that actually buy home runs.
Globe Life Field suppresses chaos but still rewards elevated pull contact to the right-field seam. Seager’s path targets that seam and keeps balls fair with late forearm strength through contact. Rangers lineup depth forces the zone; pitchers cannot nibble him forever with traffic looming. If the Angels turn quickly to relief, the advantage remains; their bullpen has bled barrels and long balls for weeks. Seager’s HR/FB rate versus right-handers sits comfortably above league norms, matching his disciplined chase profile. That discipline creates crushable counts where he can unload on first-pitch heaters or punish breaking balls elevated for strikes. I project three premium airborne balls here, with one finding seats. +275 misprices an MVP-caliber bat facing an inexperienced starter whose shapes and command fit Seager’s A-swing. I’m firing.
Freedie Freeman 2+ total bases (+105)
ENick Lodolo’s surface line pops, but the recent trend cracks. He owns a 2.85 ERA and 1.05 WHIP on the season, yet posted a 5.09 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in August, signaling command leakage and rising traffic. That month-over-month spike matters for total bases, not vibes. Hitters are reaching, extending innings, and inflating plate appearances for Los Angeles.
Freeman’s path to two bases runs through approach and count control against Lodolo’s sequencing. Lodolo’s year-long efficiency hides that recent stretch, where fewer early strikes force get-me-overs. Those become damage pitches. The Reds’ bullpen ranks third by ERA this season at 3.31, but that strength still hands Freeman extra cracks in the seventh and ninth. Extra cracks with traffic beat any bullpen rank. Two bases cash through a gap double or a multi-hit night.
Leverage favors Freeman when Lodolo’s fastball has to live in-zone after deep counts. August traffic drove longer innings, and longer innings mean more looks. Freeman punishes in-zone heaters and hangs. Lodolo’s August spike again underlines the exposure window. I want the window, not the name brand. Freeman’s discipline manufactures hitter’s counts, and hitter’s counts produce loud contact.
Context stacks the deck. The Dodgers routinely stretch innings, forcing starters above 18 batters faced and bullpen exposure. Lodolo’s August WHIP confirms that runway. Even a one-for-four with a double clears this prop.
