Sitting three games below .500 at the end of July with an outside shot of securing their first playoff berth since 2015, the Los Angeles Angels surprisingly chose to buy at the deadline, bringing in two veteran relievers. Four weeks later, Los Angeles is eight games below .500 and looks all but certain to finish with yet another losing season.
The rubber match in the Angels’ road series against the Texas Rangers, also effectively eliminated from the postseason, will take place at 8:05 p.m. ET tonight. Los Angeles will have Jack Kochanowicz toe the rubber, while the Rangers will counter with Jacob Latz.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers prediction, preview
The Angels’ deadline acquisitions, Andrew Chafin and Luis García, have been excellent, as has the team’s bullpen as a whole, posting a 3.42 ERA this month. However, the offense has been awful, posting the eighth-lowest OPS and striking out 19 more times than any other team, and franchise legend Mike Trout has hit just one homer and put up only a .695 OPS. Texas hasn’t been great, either, recording the 12th-lowest OPS and just a 10-14 record overall. The Rangers just lost Cy Young Award candidate Nathan Eovaldi for the season, and two-time Cy Young Jacob deGrom picked up his fourth loss in five games on Monday, but Patrick Corbin turned back the clock with his best start of the season last night.
Los Angeles fans know to keep their expectations low tonight with Kochanowicz on the mound. The towering right-hander has allowed three or more earned runs in 13 of his 22 starts this season, with a 71-to-55 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and he ranks in just the third percentile in pitching run value. Advanced stats don’t look too kindly upon him, as he ranks in the bottom octile in six of the 12 Statcast categories, although at least he excels at generating ground balls. He ranks in just the second percentile in average exit velocity and the sixth percentile in hard-hit rate, so while the Rangers haven’t exactly mashed this season, they should be able to do some damage.
That should be plenty enough to back up Latz. The southpaw has mostly been a reliever this season, making 26 appearances (three starts), but he’s been stellar in that time, posting a 3.05 ERA, including just five earned runs in 14.1 innings as a starter. He’s demonstrated some length before, maxing out at 88 pitches and completing the sixth inning, so it’s possible that he could pitch five or six innings tonight on a week’s rest, but four innings is probably a more realistic expectation. Latz’s four-seamer has been one of baseball’s better pitches this season, and he should keep his team in the game as long as he doesn’t issue too many walks.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Texas Rangers -1.5 (+129)
Though Texas hasn’t been that much better than the Angels as of late, the starting pitching matchup in this game is so lopsided that I have to go with the Rangers to cover the spread, which they’ve done 53% of the time this season. In what could end up effectively being a bullpen game, Texas has the edge, recent form aside.
Strong Lean: Corey Seager 2+ Total Bases (-115)
Seager has had a white-hot last 10 games, slashing .368/.442/.684, and though it’s hard to read too much into a 10-game sample size, it’s worth noting that he’s had two or more total bases in six of the 10 games. He’s a noted righty masher, recording a .904 OPS against righties this season, and Kochanowicz has conceded a .907 OPS to southpaws.
