The Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders have had two winning seasons since 2003. Not great, Bob! Over the last four seasons, there have been four head coaches — Jon Gruden, Rich Bisaccia, Josh McDaniels, and Antonio Pierce. The defense has ranked 20th or worse in points allowed in all but two seasons since 2003.
My ringtone is set to Greg Papa’s “Touchdown Raiders!” call. I get mixed emotions every time my phone rings because it’s awesome, but not something I hear announcers say much during regular season Raiders games.
Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign slogan was “Change we can believe in.” Well, there’s certainly been plenty of change with the Raiders. Can we believe in it? TBD.
Tom Brady is a minority owner. John Spytek is the new general manager. Pete Carroll is the new head coach. Chip Kelly is the new offensive coordinator. Geno Smith is the new franchise quarterback. Ashton Jeanty is the new, shiny toy at running back.
There is certainly optimism, but DraftKings Sportsbook has the O/U at 7.5 wins. While that would be an improvement from the four wins last season, it’s far from contending status and would mean another losing season for the Raiders.
Raiders target share overview
Last season, Las Vegas ranked third in pass rate at 64.32%. Part of that had to do with the Raiders’ defense, which finished 25th in points allowed. In 2023, the defense was ninth in points, and the pass rate was 13th at 55.73%.
The Raiders’ defense dealt with a bevy of injuries, which contributed to the demise. It also didn’t help that the offense had difficulty sustaining drives. The unit was pretty good in 2023, and that may be why defensive coordinator Patrick Graham was retained and extended.
Pete Carroll wants to ground and pound if he can. From 2012 to 2015 with the Seattle Seahawks, the pass rate ranked 29th, 31st, 32nd, and 32nd. Those teams had Marshawn Lynch beast-moding while the Legion of Boom was first in points allowed all of those seasons. During his last two seasons in Seattle, the defense ranked 25th in points allowed both seasons. The pass rate was fifth and 13th.
So, while Carroll wants to run the ball and play to his defense, he still wants to win.
Chip Kelly was all the rage back in the 2010s, as his hurry-up, spread offense took college football by storm. That earned him a place at the NFL table — three years with the Philadelphia Eagles and one year with the San Francisco 49ers. He had success early on, but defenses eventually figured him out, and he did not connect well with NFL players.
Back to the college ranks he went, spending six seasons as the head man at UCLA. Things did not go well there either. Last season, though, he was resuscitated after being the offensive coordinator for the national champion Ohio State Buckeyes. He was able to adapt and be more diverse and complex. That brings optimism for his second stint in the NFL, especially since he won’t be the head guy but instead just the offensive coordinator.
During his first stint in the NFL, the pass rate ranked 20th or lower in three of four seasons.
The offensive line is ranked 18th per PFF. The left side of the line looks good, with Kolton Miller and Dylan Parham holding things down. The rest of the line has question marks, but DJ Glaze and Packson Powers-Johnson were rookies last season and didn’t get eaten alive, so they could improve and develop with a year under their belts.
With the Raiders utilizing the sixth overall pick in the 2025 draft on running back Ashton Jeanty, the vision is to run the ball as often as possible. With Geno Smith under center, the offense should sustain more drives than last year, but the defense and game script will likely be the determining factor.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Las Vegas this season.
Wide receivers
Last season, Jakobi Meyers led the group with 129 targets and a 24.9% target share. That was with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell under center. Meyers is 6’2″, 203 pounds and runs a 4.63 40-yard dash. He had an aDOT of 9.9.
Tre Tucker had 81 targets and a 13.7% target share. Tucker is 5’9″, 187 pounds and runs a 4.4 40-yard dash. He had an aDOT of 12.6 last season.
Dont’e Thornton Jr. was selected in the fourth round of the 2025 draft. He’s 6’5″, 205 pounds and runs a 4.3 40-yard dash. He will likely be running plenty of routes to take the top off defenses and could deliver some splash plays from time to time, but the target share likely won’t be robust.
Geno Smith was at 7.2 average yards per attempt last season, ranking 33rd among passers with at least 100 attempts. That likely means the preferred option will be Meyers, and his target share will likely be robust once again.
Tight ends
Brock Bowers led the entire team with 153 targets and a 25.9% target share. The 153 targets were the sixth most last season in the entire NFL! Last season, 20% of the team targets in Seattle went to tight ends. That number was 33.5% for the Raiders — the third-highest in the NFL. I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that Smith will be throwing a bit more to tight ends this season.
Running backs
Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah garnered 48 and 47 targets last season. Both are no longer on the roster.
Ashton Jeanty is going to be the bell cow for the Raiders. He will play on every down that necessitates a rush or a pass, unless he’s gassed and needs a breather. He garnered a 10.8% target share in college, and Geno Smith had a 12.7% checkdown rate last season — the seventh-highest in the NFL.
