The Kansas City Chiefs fell short on the biggest stage last February, spoiling their shot at a three-peat.
Now, it’s time to see if that loss is a bump in the road or the beginning of the end for the Chiefs’ dynasty.
Patrick Mahomes is about to enter his 30s. Travis Kelce is turning 36 and about to marry the biggest popstar on the planet. Andy Reid is 67. The last time the trio lost in the Super Bowl, Kansas City failed to make it back the following season — the only time they didn’t win the AFC Championship in this six-year stretch of dominance.
All of that being said, expectations are actually higher for the Chiefs in 2025 than they were in 2024.
Chiefs Win Total
Kansas City entered last season with a Win Total of 10.5, -290 odds To Make the Playoffs and +850 odds to win the Super Bowl. All of those have improved in 2025, with DraftKings Sportsbook setting the Chiefs’ Win Total at 11.5, their odds To Make the Playoffs at -380 and their odds to win the Super Bowl at +550.
The Chiefs clearing 11.5 wins isn’t the sharp play, but it is a popular pick. 75% of the bets are on the over, compared to 59% of the handle. They have reached 12 wins in six of the last seven seasons, after all, only failing to get there when they went 11-6 in 2023.
That probably explains why Kansas City To Make the Playoffs is drawing the third-most handle, trailing only the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions.
The only area where the Chiefs have taken a step back is as Division Winners, with their odds dropping from -190 to -125 year-over-year. They account for 69% of the bets and 58% of the handle in that category.
Patrick Mahomes Futures Splits
Mahomes posted one of the worst statistical seasons of his already storied career in 2024, failing to break 4,000 yards for the first time since he took over as the full-time starter in 2018. His 26 passing touchdowns were tied for his fewest, his 93.5 passer rating and 67.6 QBR were his second-worst and his 14 Approximate Value was his lowest.
And yet, we are still just three years removed from Mahomes clearing 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns en route to his second MVP.
Mahomes ranks fourth in MVP odds in 2025 and is showing progress as a slight sharp play. He accounts for 9% of the handle on 6% of the bets, all while his odds have climbed from to +700 after opening at +800.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Mahomes’ Regular Season Passing Yards line set at 4,050.5. The over is drawing 75% of the handle and 82% of the bets. As for his Regular Season Passing TDs line of 27.5, the over accounts for 93% of the handle on 87% of the bets.
From 2018 to 2022, Mahomes averaged 4,791 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions per season with a 106.0 passer rating, 80.3 QBR and 66.4% completion percentage. He is averaging 4,055 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns and 13 interceptions a year with a 93.0 passer rating, 63.1 QBR and 67.3% completion percentage in the two seasons since.
Other Notable Player Prop Splits
Kansas City is running it back with largely the same group of weapons it had down the stretch in 2024.
Isiah Pacheco, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and Rashee Rice are healthy, although Rice could wind up serving a midseason suspension. Xavier Worthy, meanwhile, is looking to improve upon a breakout rookie season.
And then, of course, there’s Kelce. With possible retirement and his engagement to Taylor Swift looming large, Kelce is one of the biggest stars in the sport entering a critical point in his career.
Kelce posted 823 yards and three touchdowns in 2024, both of which were career lows and far from his peak averages of 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns. At the same time, the 10-time Pro Bowler racked up 97 catches on 133 targets, proving he will forever and always be Mahomes’ top target.
Here is where the prop lines currently stand for Kelce, Pacheco, Worthy and Brown heading into 2025, as well as where the splits are leaning at the moment:
- Kelce’s Regular Season Receiving Yards prop is set at 700.5. The over has seen 61% of the handle on 95% of the bets.
- Kelce’s Regular Season Receiving TDs prop is set at 4.5. The over has seen 73% of the handle on 98% of the bets.
- Kelce’s Regular Season Receptions prop is set at 72.5. The under has seen 61% of the handle on 43% of the bets.
- Pacheco’s Regular Season Rushing Yards prop is set at 725.5. The under has seen 91% of the handle on 93% of the bets.
- Pacheco’s Regular Season Rushing TDs prop is set at 5.5. The over has seen 89% of the handle on 99% of the bets.
- Worthy Regular Season Receiving Yards prop is set at 900.5. The over has seen 42% of the handle on 16% of the bets.
- Worthy Regular Season Receiving TDs prop is set at 6.5. The over has seen 90% of the handle on 87% of the bets.
- Worthy Regular Season Receptions prop is set at 70.5. The under has seen 95% of the handle on 67% of the bets.
- Brown’s Regular Season Receiving Yards prop is set at 575.5. The over has seen 72% of the handle on 84% of the bets.
Chris Jones and Trent McDuffie are both on the board for Defensive Player of the Year at +6000 and +10000, respectively. Neither is getting more than 1% of the handle or bets, though.
Betting Trends From 2024 to Consider
Here is a quick breakdown of how the Chiefs’ key players performed game-to-game last season (Note: Some of the records below include postseason play):
- Patrick Mahomes
- Passing Yards: 10-9 to the over
- Pass Attempts: 11-8 to the over
- Completions: 10-9 to the over
- Isiah Pacheco
- Rushing Yards: 7-3 to the over
- Rush Attempts: 7-3 to the over
- Receptions: 7-3 to the under
- Travis Kelce
- Receiving Yards: 10-9 to the over
- Receptions: 11-8 to the over
- Xavier Worthy
- Receiving Yards: 11-8 to the over
- Receptions: 11-8 to the over
- Marquise Brown
- Receiving Yards: 3-2 to the under
- Receptions: 3-1 to the under
- Rashee Rice
- Receiving Yards: 3-1 to the under
Use the data you find in this series to place your NFL bets on DraftKings Sportsbook before the season begins.
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