In the final game on the Wednesday night scoreboard, the Tigers are in Sacramento to take on the Athletics as they try to avoid a series sweep at the hands of the scrappy A’s. The Athletics won 8-3 on Monday and pulled out a 7-6 win on Tuesday night in extra innings. Can they take three in a row from the AL Central leaders? Let’s take a look at what to expect as the series concludes at 10:05 p.m. ET.
The Tigers’ two losses dropped them to 78-56 on the year, but they still have a comfortable 9.5-game lead in the AL Central. The Athletics are only 62-72 overall, but they have gone 8-3 in their last 11 games and have several young players who are quickly growing into MLB contributors.
Even though the A’s have taken the first two games of the series, the Tigers are -131 road favorites, and the run total is 10.5. The weather looks very favorable for offense at Sutter Health Park, with the wind blowing out to left center and the temperatures in the 80s.
Let’s preview this Wednesday nightcap with the help of some odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tigers vs. Athletics prediction, preview
The Tigers will look to Casey Mize to be their stopper, and the 28-year-old has put together a breakout season when healthy this year. He is 12-4 with a 3.68 ERA, 3.98 FIP and 103 strikeouts in 117 1/3 innings.
In his four starts in August, though, Mize has been a little more hittable, allowing multiple runs in each contest and giving up 12 runs on 20 hits in 23 innings, but still going 3-0. He had a 10-strikeout game against the Twins two starts ago, but didn’t have a single strikeout against the Royals in his most recent outing.
He’ll be opposed by rookie Luis Morales, making his fourth MLB start. I highlighted Morales as a good value play in my MLB DFS picks after back-to-back strong outings. In starts against the Angels at home and the Mariners on the road, Morales spanned 11 innings, allowing two total runs on seven hits and picking up 11 strikeouts.
The 22-year-old righty can throw gas and will do his best to continue to prove he’s ready to contribute at the MLB level with a strong finish to the season. He was successful in his 14 games at Double-A and Triple-A, going 7-3 with a 3.73 ERA, 4.07 FIP and 10.8 K/9.
The Tigers’ offense has slumped a little bit over the last month and is a little bit on cruise control since they’re so far up in the AL Central. Riley Greene has been hot, though, with multiple hits in each of his last two games and three homers in his last five. He’s always a threat for a big game and a home run, especially in these homer-friendly conditions.
Greene has the third-shortest odds to hit a home run at +255 in this matchup, trailing his teammate Kerry Carpenter at +245. For the Athletics, Shea Langelier’s home run prop is at +250, while Nick Kurtz checks in at +260. Four players under +300 and the elevated run line lets you know how hitter-friendly the game shapes up to be.
Langeliers has been on fire for the Athletics, going 17-for-67 (.254) over his last 15 games. Four of those hits have been doubles, and seven have been home runs. He’s up to 29 homers on the year and has averaged 2.8 total bases per game over those 15 contests. He has multiple total bases in six of his last eight games, so getting him at 2+ total bases at -115 is a solid play to consider.
Tigers vs. Athletics pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 10.5 runs (-105)
This run line feels high since both starting pitchers have been effective. Both games in this series went over this total, but on Tuesday, the contest had 10 runs at the end of nine innings. The average runs at Sutter Health Park this year has been 10.3, and both teams have skewed slightly towards the over. However, it feels like those factors have been baked into this total while not enough weight has been placed on the starting pitchers being effective.
Strong Lean: No Run First Inning (+110)
Getting NRFI at plus-money feels like another overcorrection to the environment. Morales hasn’t given up a run in any of first inning of his three starts, and Mize has held his opponent scoreless in 18 of his 22 games (82%). Both teams check in with 50%+ NRFI this season, and the Tigers haven’t scored in the first inning in five straight games.
