This is the finale of a three-game series in Houston between the Astros and visiting Colorado Rockies.
Kyle Freeland is scheduled to pitch for Colorado, while Jason Alexander is slated to start for Houston.
Rockies at Astros prediction, preview
Kyle Freeland is a soft-tossing lefty who has a 5.31 ERA in 125.1 innings. The FIP is slightly lower at 4.47, the BABIP is .339 and the strand rate is 64.2%. Pitching at Coors Field will skew those numbers. Freeland’s never been a bat-missing machine, and the strikeout rate is only 16.4%. To his credit, the swinging-strike rate is 9.4% while the chase rate is 30.2%. Freeland does get hit hard, though, as the average exit velocity is 91.3 mph while the hard-hit rate is 47.5%. The barrel rate is 9.6%. Freeland has given up 18 home runs.
17 of the 18 home runs have come off the bat of righties. 12 of the 18 home runs have interestingly come on the road rather than in the thin air of Coors Field. The K-BB% is higher against lefties while the FIP is only 2.78.
In 24 starts, Freeland has allowed more than three earned runs nine times. He’s gone at least six innings 12 times. He faced Houston at home back in early July, going six innings, walking two and striking out two while allowing three earned runs on six hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Astros strike out at the 19th-highest rate while having the ninth-best ISO. Their wOBA is seventh-best in MLB.
Jason Alexander has started seven games in 12 appearances totaling 49 innings. The fastball averages 92 mph and the strikeout rate is only 17.7%. The walk rate is at 8.8%. The hard-hit rate is a robust 48.1% and he’s allowed seven home runs.
Alexander has struggled more with lefties, as the walk rate is 10.2% while five of the seven home runs have come off their bats. He’s been better at home, as the K-BB% is 14% compared to 5.4% on the road.
In seven starts, Alexander has allowed more than three earned runs once. He did give up nine earned runs in 2.1 innings out of bullpen against the Dodgers back in mid-May. Alexander has gone at least six innings five times. This will be his first time facing Colorado this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Rockies strike out at the second-highest rate while having the 16th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 27th-best in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Colorado has the 26th-lowest FIP, while Houston has the 29th-lowest since August 1.
Rockies at Astros pick, best bet
I like the Astros’ righties to send a few into the Crawford Boxes. The lineup is also more potent with the return of Yordan Alvarez. As for Jason Alexander vs. the Rockies offense away from Coors, it’s like a moveable object vs. a stoppable force. I do think the Rockies score a few runs, but nothing too crazy.
