This is the finale of a four-game series in Baltimore between the Orioles and visiting Boston Red Sox.
Garrett Crochet is scheduled to pitch for Boston, while Cade Povich is slated to start for Baltimore.
Red Sox at Orioles prediction, preview
Garrett Crochet has been elite this season. The strikeout rate is 31.2%, the third-highest mark in MLB. The fastball averages 96.5 mph, the swinging strike rate is 13.5% while the chase rate is 31.7%. He’s allowed only 15 home runs in 166.1 innings. The 2.38 ERA is supported by the 2.58 FIP, also the third-lowest in MLB. On the season, he’s put up single-digit FPTS only once. He’s gone over 20 FPTS 18 times with a high of 45.45 FPTS.
Crochet has been split neutral. He’s been slightly better on the road, but still good at home. Nine of the 15 home runs have been served up at home.
In 26 starts, Crochet has allowed more than three earned runs four times. He’s human! He’s gone at least six innings 19 times. He faced Baltimore way back in early April, going eight innings, walking one and striking out eight without allowing an earned run on four hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Orioles strike out at the seventh-highest rate while having the 22nd-best ISO. Their wOBA is 21st-best in MLB.
Cade Povich is 2-7 in 15 starts this season, posting a 5.13 ERA. He has been unlucky, though, with a .335 BABIP and 66.2% strand rate. The FIP is down at 4.03. The strikeout rate is a healthy 25.4% and the swinging strike rate is 10.2%. The chase rate is only 26.8% and he’s been getting hit hard. The average exit velocity is 91.6 mph (ninth-highest), barrel rate is 12.6% (second-most) and the hard hit rate is 48.4% (fifth-highest). He’s allowed 13 home runs in 86 innings.
Nine of the 13 home runs have come off the bat of righties while 10 of the 13 home runs have been served up at home. The lefty has been slightly better against lefties, as the K-BB% is 23.9%. The K-BB% is only 14.8% at home compared to 19.5% on the road.
In 15 starts, Povich has allowed more than three earned runs six times. He’s gone at least six innings four times. He has faced Boston twice this season. In his first start of the season at home in March, Povich went 4.1 innings, walked two and struck out eight while allowing three earned runs on five hits. In late May at Boston, Povich went five innings, walked three and struck out six while allowing one earned run on four hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Red Sox strike out at the 14th-highest rate while having the 12th-best ISO. Their wOBA is sixth-best in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Boston has the 13th-lowest FIP, while Baltimore has the 19th-lowest since August 1.
Red Sox at Orioles pick, best bet
I have all the faith in Crochet while I have no faith in Povich. He just gets hit too hard for me to ever feel comfortable.
